Cagliari looks to keep perfect Coppa Italia record against winless Hellas Verona

Cagliari heads into this Coppa Italia clash with a perfect record in the competition, while Hellas Verona still hasn't tasted a win in this edition. The Unipol Domus hosts a match carrying more sporting weight than a mere formality: the Sardinians are looking to keep their perfect run alive, while the Venetians are trying to break out of a slump that's starting to sting.

Cagliari's Coppa Italia log shows one match played, one won, one goal scored and none conceded. In terms of recent form (counting other competitions as well), the club has racked up four wins in its last five matches, with just one loss mixed in. That recent form backs up the good vibes, though it shouldn't be confused with the tournament-specific record, which for now is based on that single match.

Hellas Verona, on the other hand, opened its Coppa Italia campaign with a draw: one match played, two goals scored and two conceded. Its recent form doesn't help the narrative either: three draws and two losses in the last five matches, with no wins in that stretch. It's a run that calls for caution more than optimism.

There's a nuance worth clarifying before moving on: in the trend sample from this same 2026 Coppa Italia (just one match, covering both home and away), Cagliari has posted a 100% clean sheet rate, and Alessandro Deiola stands out as its top scorer with a goal in the 16th to 30th minute window. Hellas Verona, in that same limited sample, has a 0% clean sheet rate and has spread its goals among Amin Sarr, Grigoris Kastanos and Mattia Compagnon, each scoring in that same 16th to 30th minute window. These are single-match figures, so they should be read as a snapshot rather than an established trend.

What the head-to-head record says

The two sides have met eight times, with the edge going to Cagliari: three wins to Hellas Verona's two, with three draws. In terms of goals, the Sardinians are also ahead, 11 to 7.

The probable lineups

Based on the most recent lineups (medium reliability estimate), Cagliari would go with Elia Caprile in goal, Adam Obert, Alessandro Deiola, Juan Rodriguez and Ze Pedro across the back, Michel Adopo, Harry Winks, Alessandro Romano, Jacopo Fazzini and Gianluca Gaetano in midfield, and Paul Mendy up top as the attacking focal point.

Hellas Verona, in a probable lineup rated low reliability, would rely on a shared goalkeeping job between Nicola Leali and Lorenzo Montipo, a back line of Andrias Edmundsson, Domagoj Bradaric, Nicolas Valentini and Victor Nelsson, a midfield of Antoine Bernede, Abdou Harroui, Amin Sarr and Rafik Belghali, and Mattia Compagnon leading the line.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Cagliari a 55% chance of winning, with 29% for a draw and 16% for Hellas Verona. In expected goals, our own estimate has Cagliari at 1.48 and Hellas Verona at 0.67, for a combined total of 2.16.

Cagliari is the clear favorite here, though not by an overwhelming margin: nearly three in ten outcomes, according to this estimate, would end in a draw. Worth repeating: this is our own projection, not a betting line or a locked-in forecast.

With an unbeaten Cagliari playing at home in the Coppa Italia and a Hellas Verona side in need of rediscovering how to win, the Unipol Domus has the makings of a match defined by a sharp contrast in form between the two sides.