Lazio struggles but rallies past Cagliari to stay unbeaten atop Serie A

Cagliari went ahead at the Stadio Olimpico with a counterattack that caught everyone off guard, but Lazio ended up taking the match 2-1 with a late goal. It was a game that got complicated for the Serie A leader before being settled in its favor in the final quarter hour.

The opening blow came from M'Bala Nzola in the 19th minute: Alieu Fadera drove a counterattack forward and the striker finished with his left foot from close range to make it 0-1. It was a gut punch for a team that had already had clear chances, with shots from Davide Frattesi and Mattia Zaccagni saved by Cagliari's goalkeeper just minutes earlier.

Lazio's response came before halftime. In the 35th minute, Gustav Isaksen connected with a cross from Tijjani Noslin, curling a left-footed shot into the top right corner to make it 1-1, the score at the break.

In the second half, the match became bogged down. Cagliari pushed at times, with attempts from Michel Adopo, Zé Pedro and Alessandro Romano failing to find the target, while Lazio turned to its bench, bringing on Alfonso Pedraza, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Andrea Pinamonti. It was Pinamonti who settled the match: in the 82nd minute, he headed in a Pedraza cross from close range to make it a final 2-1. Cagliari still faced a difficult finish, as Adam Obert picked up a second yellow card in stoppage time and was sent off.

The numbers behind the dominance

Lazio controlled the ball from start to finish, with 73.7% possession to Cagliari's 26.3%, and a massive gap in passing. However, the shot count was closer than that possession figure would suggest, and Cagliari actually created more big chances.

In our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, Cagliari actually finished ahead of Lazio: 1.594 to 1.208. That figure confirms the visitors didn't just sit back and defend, they had real arguments for taking something from the Olimpico, despite playing with only a sliver of possession.

What the preview said

Before the match we projected a Lazio win at 58% probability, a draw at 27% and just a 15% chance of a Cagliari victory, with expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 0.76 for the visitors. The final result ended up matching that favoritism, though the path there was rockier than expected: Cagliari managed to take the lead and created more than that preview projection suggested, and Lazio had to wait until the 82nd minute to find the breakthrough.

What the result means

With this win, Lazio reaches 28 points through ten matches, with a record of 9 wins, 1 draw and no losses, and remains Serie A's leader. Cagliari, meanwhile, sits at 13 points after 10 matches (4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses), a gap of 15 points to the leader that sums up the difference in form between the two sides well, even if the match on the field was far from reflecting that gap in the table.