Carrera's header sinks last-place Juarez at home

VAR chalked off a goal in the 28th minute and nearly spoiled the night for Martin Sarrafiore, but Atlante still found a way to leave Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez with all three points. Nico Carrera rose to head home the only goal of the match in the 75th minute, giving the visitors a 0-1 win over Juarez in Liga MX play.

What stings most for the home side is that the scoreline could have looked very different. In the 28th minute, Sarrafiore put the ball in the back of the net, but a VAR review overturned the goal, and two minutes later the referee confirmed on the field that it would not stand. Atlante kept pushing and created the clearest chances through Jhojan Julio, who rattled the post with a shot in the 50th minute, and Luis Puente, who came close with a header in the 61st. The breakthrough finally arrived through the method that had worked best for Atlante all night: a corner kick. Sarrafiore whipped in the delivery, and Carrera finished with a header from the center of the box to make it 0-1, which is how it stayed.

Plenty of possession, not much to show for it

Juarez controlled more of the ball (60.7% possession) and strung together more passes, but struggled badly to trouble the opposing goal. The home side managed just one shot on target the entire game, a Denzell Garcia effort that grazed the crossbar in the second half. Juarez moved the ball around plenty, but without depth or clarity in the final third, while Atlante, for all its lesser share of possession, was more direct and far more effective on set pieces: the winning goal came from the ninth of its nine corners.

The numbers from our expected goals model back up what played out on the field: Atlante generated an xG of 1.205 compared to Juarez's 0.372, calculated from the location of every shot taken in the match. Fewer chances, but far more dangerous ones, for the visiting side.

What the preview said versus what actually happened

Ahead of kickoff, our projection gave Juarez a 42% chance of winning, against 30% for Atlante and 28% for a draw, with expected goals split at 1.56 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors. The result went the other way entirely: the team given less chance of winning did exactly that, and without conceding a single goal in the process.

In the standings, the loss leaves Juarez in an even more precarious spot: with just 4 points from 13 matches played (1 win, 1 draw and 11 losses) and a goal difference of minus 24, the club sits dead last. Atlante, meanwhile, climbed to 14 points from 13 matches (3 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses), and while still in the lower half of the table, has edged a bit closer to mid-table, now 10 points clear of its opponent on the night.

For Juarez, the match leaves a bitter taste: more possession, more passes, and still unable to seriously threaten the opposing goal more than once. For Atlante, Carrera's goal and the resilience shown after the VAR scare were enough to walk away with all three points from a stadium where, by the numbers, it was not the team calling the shots.