Cavan Sullivan, the 16-Year-Old Already Ranking Among MLS's Top Ten

Something is happening in MLS that almost nobody is watching with the attention it deserves. While the world kept arguing about VAR and the state of the Argentine national team after the World Cup, a 16-year-old has spent months doing things that neither Kylian Mbappe, nor Lamine Yamal, nor Harry Kane did at that age. His name is Cavan Sullivan, and he plays for Philadelphia Union.

Let's start with a number that's hard to believe: 1,675 minutes played in his age-16 season (the one that begins before he turns 17). According to historical data from FBref, which covers the most competitive leagues outside Europe's top five since the start of the century, only 21 outfield players have racked up more minutes than him at that age. And he still has at least eight games left to play. If we bring Europe's top five leagues into the equation, only five names top him before their age-17 season: Eduardo Camavinga, Alex Song, Gavi, Yamal and Nuri Sahin. The all-time record still belongs to Freddy Adu, with 5,448 minutes.

The comparison with Adu isn't random, because 20 years ago MLS was a very different, much weaker league. Not anymore. According to a recent analysis by Michael Caley, the combined market value of MLS's 30 clubs has already matched Belgium and Mexico, and surpassed Portugal and the Netherlands, adding up to an estimated total of 1.54 billion euros. In other words, the average match Sullivan plays today is likely tougher than playing for Benfica, Porto or PSV.

Numbers That Top Bojan, Rooney and Almost Everyone Else

In terms of direct output, Sullivan has 12 combined goals and assists (seven goals, five assists) before his age-17 season. Only Yamal himself and Wayne Rooney during his Everton days match that with 10, while the record among Europe's top five leagues belongs to Bojan Krkic, with 13, during Guardiola's golden years at Barcelona. Expanding to the "Next 14" leagues, only four players surpass him: Estevao (23 with Palmeiras), Adu (22), Romelu Lukaku (19 with Anderlecht) and Endrick (15 before his move to Real Madrid).

And the trend keeps climbing: in his last eight matches since the World Cup ended, Sullivan has scored six goals and added four assists.

What's interesting is that even those numbers don't tell the whole story. Using data from Stats Perform, which does include leagues like Liga MX, the Eredivisie or South American competitions going back to the mid-2010s, Sullivan ranks third in expected goals and second in expected assists among all players aged 16 or younger recorded in that span. He also leads that same group in passes into the final third, with 132, well ahead of midfielders like Jude Bellingham (104) or Gilberto Mora (109).

When you look at passes into the opponent's box, the gap widens further: Sullivan has 202, trailing only Yamal (254). And inside the box, his 142 touches are surpassed only, once again, by Yamal.

One of MLS's Top Ten Players Right Now

All of this would already make him a statistical rarity. But there's one figure that takes it to another level. The rating model used by the Futi app measures how much every touch of the ball contributes to a team's probability of scoring or conceding, adjusted for the player's role and the team's performance with and without him on the field, all translated into a scale from 0 to 100.

Among players with at least 1,500 minutes played this season, Sullivan ranks among the top ten in all of MLS. The average age of the nine players ahead of him is 31, nearly double his own.

Open questions remain, the kind that apply to any 16-year-old: will he grow enough physically? How will he adapt if he leaves Philadelphia's system? How will he handle the jump to Europe when it comes? None of that is guaranteed. But there's one final figure that sums up why the excitement is so justified: Futi also rates performance separately across five facets of on-ball play (finishing, creating, receiving, dribbling and connecting), and only two players in the entire league score above 60 in all five categories at once. One is Lionel Messi. The other is Cavan Sullivan.