Celje claws back from 0-2 down to snatch late draw against Salzburg

Celje was down 0-2 and the match looked all but settled. But the Slovenian side found something in the final minutes to pull off a 2-2 draw against Salzburg, a result that leaves a mixed taste for both teams. At Stadion Z'dezele, in the Europa League, the equalizer came in the 89th minute after Celje had trailed all night.

Salzburg started the stronger side and made it count early: in the 8th minute, Sota Kitano finished with his right foot from the center of the box, low and inside the left post, after an assist from Damir Redzic on a quick counterattack. The home side had its moments, including a shot from Veton Tusha that struck the left post in the 26th minute, but couldn't find a way to seriously trouble the visiting defense.

Right before halftime came what looked like the decisive blow. In the 45th minute, just after coming on as a substitute, Jesper Lindstrom (who had replaced Yorbe Vertessen moments earlier) finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 0-2, again assisted by Redzic, the standout attacking presence for the Austrians on the night.

Celje's response

The second half began and Celje answered almost immediately. In the 49th minute, right after the restart, Blaz Kramer connected with his left foot from the center of the box, assisted by Svit Seslar, to cut the deficit and put the Slovenian side back in the match.

From there the game opened up. Salzburg had chances to put it away, with Haris Tabakovic and Lindstrom both testing their luck late on without success, while Celje, after bringing on Armandas Kucys and Yaya Dukuly, gradually gained the upper hand. The equalizer came in stoppage time, in the 89th minute: Kucys finished with his right foot from the right side of the box, low and inside the left post, set up by Dukuly, to make it 2-2. There was still time for a Lindstrom header that went wide deep into stoppage time, but the score held.

What the numbers say

The balance of merit showed up in the stats: Salzburg generated more offensive volume, but Celje didn't fall short in the number that matters most.

In our own xG estimate (expected goals calculated from the shots taken in the match), Celje finished with 1.71 and Salzburg with 1.796, a razor-thin difference that backs up how even the outcome really was, even though the visitors led in total shots.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Celje a 39% chance of winning, Salzburg 34%, and a draw 27%, with an expected total of 3.05 goals. The final result, with four goals split in a 2-2 draw, lined up fairly well with that forecast of an open match, though the path to get there (down 0-2 at halftime and a partial comeback after) was far more dramatic than any percentage could have suggested.

What the result means

In the league phase standings, the draw leaves Salzburg with 4 points from 3 matches played, while Celje sits on just 1 point from the same number of games, still without a win in the competition. The gap between the two in the standings is 3 points. For Celje, salvaging a draw after falling two goals behind carries some merit, though the need to pick up three points remains pressing. Salzburg, for its part, leaves with the feeling of having let slip a lead it had well under control.