Celta and Osasuna chase first win of the season at Balaídos, with a draw looming as the likely outcome

Balaídos opens its gates for an early-season matchup in which neither side has yet tasted victory in LaLiga. Celta de Vigo and Osasuna arrive level in the standings, each having drawn its only match so far, and that alone explains why this meeting could serve as a first real gauge for both clubs.

Celta sits in 12th place with 1 point, the product of a scoreless draw in its league opener. The sample size is tiny, just one match played, no wins and no losses, so any reading of the table at this stage should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent form offers a bit more insight, blending results from other competitions or preseason: two wins, two draws and one loss in the last five matches, a stretch that isn't bad but isn't overwhelming either.

Osasuna shares almost the same profile in the standings: also 1 point, also a draw in its lone league match, sitting just one spot above Celta in 11th place. The difference shows up in recent form, where the Navarrese side arrives considerably more battered: four losses and a draw in its last five outings, a run that contrasts sharply with its upcoming opponent's and points to a team in need of a turnaround.

What the history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with a slight edge for Osasuna: 4 wins to Celta's 3, with 1 draw. Goal-wise, it's a dead heat: 11 goals scored by each side, a number that paints this as an evenly matched rivalry over time.

Likely lineups

Based on recent matches, Celta could line up with Ionut Radu in goal, a back line of Yoel Lago, Javi Rodríguez and Marcos Alonso, and a midfield featuring Sergio Carreira, Fer López, Javi Rueda and Ilaix Moriba, leaving Ferran Jutglà, Hugo Álvarez and Borja Iglesias up top. This is an estimated lineup, not confirmed, and the reliability of this projection is rated as medium.

Osasuna, for its part, could field Sergio Herrera in net, a back line of Alejandro Catena, Valentin Rosier, Enzo Boyomo and Abel Bretones, a double pivot of Jon Moncayola and Lucas Torró backed by Rubén García and Moi Gómez, and Ante Budimir alongside Aimar Oroz leading the attack. This too is a projected, not official, starting eleven.

What the numbers say

Our model views Celta as a moderate favorite, helped by home-field advantage at Balaídos, but without a commanding edge over Osasuna. The numbers break down as follows:

The percentages make Celta the more likely outcome, but with the draw nipping at the heels of a road win for Osasuna, confirming that this match is far from settled on paper. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With both teams chasing their first win of the season, and recent form clearly tilting in Celta's favor, Balaídos could be the stage where one of them finally breaks through. Combined expected goals near 2.72 suggest there should be no shortage of chances to settle it.