Celta look to bounce back at Balaídos against an unbeaten Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League

Celta Vigo need a show of authority at Balaídos. With one win and two losses so far in the Europa League league phase, Claudio Giráldez's side sit 25th in the standings with 3 points and a negative goal difference. Across the field will be Union Saint-Gilloise, unbeaten and sitting 6th with 7 points. This is no ordinary match: a loss would push the Galician side even further from the places that guarantee continuity in the competition.

The numbers tell the story: Celta have scored 3 goals and conceded 4 in their three matches so far, while Union Saint-Gilloise have racked up 8 goals for and just 1 against, with two wins and a draw. As for recent form, the Vigo side arrive with two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five matches, closing out that stretch with a defeat. Union Saint-Gilloise, on the other hand, have four wins and a draw in their last five, with no losses in that span.

One figure is worth a closer look: in this season's Europa League, both home and away, Union Saint-Gilloise are averaging 2.667 goals scored per game and just 0.333 conceded, with a 67% clean sheet rate across a sample of 3 matches. Celta, in that same competition and season, are averaging 1 goal scored and 1.333 conceded, with no clean sheets in that sample. These are contextual numbers rather than season-long totals, but they help explain why the Belgian side arrive with more confidence.

Probable lineups

For Celta, the projected lineup (medium confidence) would see Ionut Radu again in goal, with Javi Rodríguez, Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres and Marcos Alonso across the back line. In midfield, Aleix Febas, Ilaix Moriba, Javi Rueda and Sergio Carreira would feature, with Hugo Álvarez and Ferran Jutglà up top. Javi Rodríguez, in fact, is one of the team's top scorers in this season's Europa League sample, with 2 goals, alongside Hugo Álvarez with 1.

On the Union Saint-Gilloise side, with a high confidence projection, Hervé Koffi would remain in goal, protected by Massiré Sylla, Nikki Havenaar and Nohim Chibani. The likely midfield would bring together Kamiel Van de Perre, Besfort Zeneli, Louis Patris, Guilherme Smith and Darius Olaru, with Relebohile Mofokeng and Raul Florucz leading the attack. Guilherme Smith tops the scoring chart in that European sample with 2 goals, followed by Sekou Keita and Mofokeng himself with 1 each.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model does not see the match as settled in advance, though it does tilt things toward the visitors:

The 44% in favor of the Belgian side is far from a blowout prediction: the draw sits close to a third probability, and Celta hold on to a 25% that is hardly negligible playing at home. These are our own estimates, built from the season's trends, and should not be read as betting odds. The expected goals back up that reading: 0.96 for Celta against 1.37 for Union Saint-Gilloise, a combined 2.32 that lines up with the 67% our model assigns to both the match going over 2.5 goals and to both teams scoring.

With those numbers on the table, Balaídos welcomes a rival that has yet to lose in the league phase and is riding high. Celta have a duty to reverse that trend at home; Union Saint-Gilloise, one to confirm it away from their own stadium.