Union Saint-Gilloise, clear favorite as Real Sociedad looks to bounce back in the Europa League

Union Saint-Gilloise arrives off a 3-0 win in its Europa League opener, while Real Sociedad is still shaking off a 2-1 defeat. That contrast sets the tone for a match being played, oddly enough, at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, with the Belgians standing out as clear favorites to take all three points at home.

David Hubert's side comes in with four wins and a draw in its last five matches, a run that has it sitting near the top of its group after its only outing in the competition so far: a 3-0 victory that leaves it with a perfect record and a goal difference of plus 3, good for fifth in the table. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, has been more uneven: three wins and two losses in its last five games, but in this Europa League it opened with a stumble, a 1-2 loss that leaves it bottom of the standings with 0 points and a negative goal difference. There are 3 points separating the two sides in the table, though it's worth remembering this is just getting started: with only one match played by each team, the current order says little about the real level of either squad.

Still, it's worth not reading too much into small samples. In this Europa League campaign so far, home and away, Union Saint-Gilloise has kept a clean sheet 100% of the time and tends to score between the 16th and 30th minutes, with Ondrej Kricfalusi, Relebohile Mofokeng and Mateo Biondic each scoring one goal so far. On the other side, Real Sociedad has yet to keep a clean sheet in that same small sample (0%), and its goal came between the 46th and 60th minutes, scored by Sergio Gomez. These numbers come from a very limited sample and should be read as a partial snapshot, not an established trend.

Probable lineups

With high reliability based on recent matches, Union Saint-Gilloise should line up with Herve Koffi in goal, a back line of Massire Sylla, Ondrej Kricfalusi and Nikki Havenaar, a midfield featuring Louis Patris, Guilherme Smith, Besfort Zeneli, Kamiel Van de Perre and Adem Zorgane, and a forward pairing of Mateo Biondic and Relebohile Mofokeng up top.

Real Sociedad, with low reliability in this projection (which leaves more room for surprises in the starting eleven), is expected to go with Alex Remiro in goal, a back line made up of Sergio Gomez, Jon Martin, Mamadou Sarr and Jon Aramburu, a midfield of Yangel Herrera, Goncalo Guedes, Carlos Soler and Ander Barrenetxea, and Mikel Oyarzabal alongside Luka Sucic up front.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to Union Saint-Gilloise, though it doesn't rule out a surprise. Here's the breakdown:

That in-house estimate (not a betting line) marks Union Saint-Gilloise as a heavy favorite to pick up its second win of the group stage, with a draw still standing as a real possibility and Real Sociedad, based on expected goals, arriving with less offensive firepower as the visiting side.

The match will test whether the Belgians' perfect start was a genuine sign of strength or just a good day at the office, while Real Sociedad looks to turn around a campaign that has, so far, begun in the worst possible way.