Keita saves Union Saint-Gilloise with 87th-minute goal against Real Sociedad

Union Saint-Gilloise came into this one pushing hard for a win and found out it wasn't enough just to force a draw: the 1-1 result against Real Sociedad at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion left the feeling of an incomplete comeback, settled just three minutes before the final whistle. Sekou Keita, who had just come on, popped up to net the equalizer in the 87th minute, a right-footed finish from close range after the ball fell loose in the box following a foul. Before that, the Belgian side had controlled possession and the shot count for much of the match without that translating into a goal, at least not until the closing stretch.

Real Sociedad had gone ahead right at the end of the first half. Beñat Turrientes, who had just come on for Yangel Herrera, struck a right-footed shot from the center of the box to make it 0-1 almost with the halftime whistle already sounding. It was a sharp counterpunch to end a first half in which Union had already given warning signs: Massiré Sylla rattled the post with a header in the 8th minute, and Guilherme Smith, Kamiel Van de Perre and Darius Olaru all tried their luck without finding the target.

A siege that took its time to pay off

In the second half, Union kept pressing with the same protagonists: Relebohile Mofokeng, Besfort Zeneli and Olaru kept testing the Real Sociedad defense from distance and in close, while the Basque side sat back and looked to hit on the counter through Luka Sucic or Mikel Oyarzabal, without much sharpness in front of goal. The match opened up as the substitutions came in (Takefusa Kubo, Ander Barrenetxea and Orri Óskarsson entered for the visitors, while Denzel De Roeve, Dylan Aquino and Keita himself came on for the home side) until Union's patience finally paid off in the 87th minute, with a finish that leveled the score and that's how it ended, despite three minutes of stoppage time in which Real Sociedad searched in vain for a second goal.

The match numbers tell a clear story: Union fired off sixteen shots to Real Sociedad's five, and that gap shows up in the post-match expected goals figures, which sit at 1.819 for the home side against 0.544 for the visitors. It's a measure of what was generated on the field, not a prediction, but it confirms the Belgian side deserved more than a point given the volume of chances it racked up, especially in the first half with that Sylla header off the post.

The result also contrasts with what we projected before the match: our model gave Union Saint-Gilloise a 60% chance of winning, just 24% for a draw and 16% for a Real Sociedad win, with expected goals of 1.98 for the home side and 0.95 for Real Sociedad. The draw ended up being the outcome, which the preview had rated as the least likely of the three scenarios.

What it means in the standings

In the Europa League table, neither side had another match happening at the same time, but the point leaves both clubs with matching records: Union Saint-Gilloise has a win and a draw from two matches, while Real Sociedad picks up its first point after this draw, with a draw and a loss from its two outings so far. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 3 points, proof of how tight this group remains in these early matchdays. For Union, a draw with a stoppage-time goal feels like scant reward given everything they created; for Real Sociedad, salvaging a point on the road after leading until the 87th minute leaves the feeling of an opportunity that slipped away in the final moments.