Celta and Alavés Meet at Balaídos Looking to Snap Their Slumps

Eight draws out of a possible nine points over the last five games is not the start Celta de Vigo had in mind for this season, and on Saturday at Balaídos they face an Alavés side that isn't exactly brimming with confidence either. This weekend's standout LaLiga clash pits two teams hovering around mid-table who both need a win to avoid falling further behind the pack up top.

Celta sit ninth with 8 points from 8 games played: just one win, five draws and two losses, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. It's a record built on plenty of shared points and few secured ones, and the recent form backs that up: in their last five matches they picked up one win, two draws and two losses. Alavés, seventh with 11 points, have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses on the season, with 12 goals scored and 8 allowed. Their most recent form is more worrying, though: over the last five games they won just once, drew once and lost the other three. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 3 points, which the table itself reflects with both clubs bunched in the middle.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in its usual setting, though these are separate samples and shouldn't be confused with the overall league record. Playing at home this LaLiga season, Celta average 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game across 4 matches, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and tend to do most of their damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. Pablo Durán, with 2 goals in that sample, is their clearest attacking reference, followed by Iago Aspas and Ilaix Moriba with one each. Alavés, on the road and in a smaller sample of just 3 games, average 0.667 goals scored and 1.013 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 33% of games and their most productive stretch coming between the 16th and 30th minutes. Lucas Boyé stands out there with 5 goals, well ahead of Mariano Díaz (3) and Pablo Ibáñez (1).

The head-to-head record doesn't point to an overwhelming favorite either, despite the numerical edge: of the 8 meetings between the two sides, Celta have won 4, Alavés 2, with 2 draws, and the Galician side has scored 14 goals to the Basques' 11.

Probable lineups

Based on recent matches, Celta de Vigo, under Claudio Giráldez, could line up with Ionut Radu in goal, Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago and Álvaro Núñez across the back line, Ilaix Moriba, Javi Rueda, Miguel Román and Sergio Carreira in midfield, and Ferran Jutglà, Hugo Álvarez and Pablo Durán up top. This is a projected lineup with low confidence, so it should be taken as a guide rather than a certainty.

Quique Sánchez Flores's Alavés have a projected lineup with higher confidence: Antonio Sivera in goal; Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Ville Koski and Nicolás Valentini across the back line; Abde Rebbach, Pablo Ibáñez, Ángel Pérez, Antonio Blanco and Denis Suárez in midfield; and Lucas Boyé leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Celta a slight edge for playing at home, but without a clear favorite emerging.

Expected goals back up that even outlook: 1.37 for Celta against 1.02 for Alavés, for an estimated total of 2.39 goals in the match. On top of that, the probability of both teams scoring sits at 50%, while the chance of more than 2.5 goals is 42%, so a game with back and forth on the scoreboard wouldn't be a surprise. These are independent estimates based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Celta looking to put an end to their run of draws and Alavés needing to stop their recent slide, Balaídos is set to host a match of crossed needs where almost any result would feel unsurprising.