Chapecoense seeks way out of crisis against Bahia at Arena Condá

Arena Condá hosts a matchup that means very different things for each side in the Brasileirão: Chapecoense needs to turn around a crisis that has left it at the bottom of the table, while Bahia arrives sitting in the upper half of the standings with hopes of climbing even higher.

Form guide

Chapecoense's current situation is alarming. The club sits in 20th place with just 10 points from 21 matches: 1 win, 7 draws and 13 losses, with a goal difference of -23 (20 goals scored against 43 conceded). The team hasn't won any of its last five matches, with two draws and three defeats, a run that confirms the fragility of a side averaging 1.302 goals scored and 2.394 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 10% of matches. Its most productive scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes, and its top scorers, Neto Pessoa, Marcinho and Rafael Carvalheira, have managed just two goals apiece this season.

Bahia, on the other hand, sits in sixth place with 33 points from 22 matches (8 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses), just one point behind fifth-place Cruzeiro. The gap between the two clubs in the standings stands at 23 points, a fair reflection of how far apart their seasons have been. Bahia hasn't lost any of its last five matches, with one win and four draws, a run built more on solidity than firepower. Averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.408 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 30% of matches, Bahia also shares with Chapecoense a tendency to score most often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Luciano Juba is the team's top offensive threat with 7 goals, followed by Everaldo (4) and David Duarte (3).

Head-to-head

The history between these two clubs clearly favors the visitors: of the 8 matches played, Bahia has won 4, Chapecoense 2, with 2 draws, and a lopsided goal difference in Bahia's favor, 10 to 5.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, based on an estimate drawn from recent matches, Chapecoense could field Anderson in goal; Doma, Fernando, Rafael Thyere and Bruno Pacheco (with Bruno Tubarão as an alternative) across the back line; Camilo, Marcinho, Max and Yannick Bolasie in midfield, and Giovanni Augusto leading the attack.

Bahia, also as a likely lineup, would send out Ronaldo between the posts; Santiago Ramos Mingo, David Duarte and Román Gómez in defense; Rodrigo Nestor, Ademir, Nicolás Acevedo, Erick Pulga, Zé Guilherme and Jean Lucas in midfield, with Willian José as the reference forward.

Odds

EnPelotas' own model gives Bahia a 46% chance of victory, with Chapecoense at 28% and a draw at 26%. This isn't a closed forecast or a betting line, but rather an estimate based on this season's trends: although the visitors are favorites, the numbers aren't overwhelming, leaving real room for an upset or a shared point. Expected goals, also estimated, sit at 1.36 for Chapecoense and 1.80 for Bahia, a combined 3.16 that lines up with the season's trends, a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 56% chance both teams find the net.

Looking ahead to the match

Chapecoense urgently needs points to try to climb out of the relegation zone, while Bahia will look to build on its good form and keep closing in on the top of the Brasileirão table. The numbers favor the visitors, but home advantage and Chapecoense's desperate need for points could complicate the forecast at Arena Condá.