Charlotte FC hosts a struggling Chicago Fire with fourth place in MLS on the line

Charlotte FC arrives having gone three wins and two draws in its last five matches, without a single loss, while Chicago Fire FC has stumbled through three draws and two straight defeats over that same stretch. With such contrasting form, the two sides meet at Bank of America Stadium in a direct battle atop the MLS Eastern Conference.

The standings have them nearly neck and neck: Charlotte sits fourth with 43 points from 26 games played (12 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses, with 47 goals scored and 37 allowed), while Chicago is fifth with 39 points from 25 games (11 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses, 45 goals scored and 38 allowed). The gap between them is just 4 points, so this clash could shake up that part of the table considerably.

Playing at home in the 2026 MLS season, over a sample of 13 matches, Charlotte averages 2 goals scored and 1 allowed per game, with a 23% clean sheet rate and its strongest scoring stretch between the 76th and 90th minutes. Pep Biel leads the way as its top scorer in that sample with 12 goals, followed by Idan Toklomati with 9 and Liel Abada with 5. On the other side, Chicago on the road this season and competition, across 13 matches, averages 1.769 goals scored and 1.846 allowed, with only a 15% clean sheet rate and its best production between the 61st and 75th minutes. There, Maren Haile-Selassie stands out with 8 goals and Robert Lewandowski with 6.

The head-to-head record also favors Charlotte: of 8 meetings, it has won 5, Chicago has taken 3, and there have been no draws, with 16 goals for the home side against 15 for the visitors in the combined tally.

Probable Lineups

Charlotte could roll out much of the same group it has used lately, with Kristijan Kahlina in goal and a back line of Henry Kessler, Tim Ream, David Schnegg and Will Cleary. In midfield, look for Allan Saint-Maximin, Pep Biel, Liel Abada, Ashley Westwood and Djibril Diani, with Idan Toklomati leading the attack. This lineup is projected from recent matches, not confirmed.

Gregg Berhalter, in charge of Chicago Fire FC, could have Chris Brady available in goal, with Jonathan Dean, Jack Elliott, Andrew Gutman, Noah Allen and Sam Rogers across the back line. Djé D'Avilla, Philip Zinckernagel, Maren Haile-Selassie and Robin Lod would round out the midfield, with Robert Lewandowski up front. This too is an estimate, not an official XI.

What the Numbers Say

Our model calculates the probabilities for this match as follows:

The home side enters as the favorite, though not by a wide margin: 47% against 28% for the visitors leaves plenty of room for uncertainty, especially with a 25% chance of a draw. Our model's expected goals are 1.90 for Charlotte and 1.45 for Chicago, for an estimated total of 3.34, in line with trends that point to a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance both teams score. Keep in mind this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With Charlotte riding a positive run and Chicago in need of snapping its slide, Bank of America Stadium is set up for an open game with goals at both ends.