Colorado Rapids dominate but settle for 1-1 draw with San Jose Earthquakes

VAR had the first say at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, but the scoreboard told a different story in the end: Colorado Rapids 1, San Jose Earthquakes 1. It's a draw that leaves mixed feelings, especially since the home side clearly controlled the ball but couldn't turn that edge into three points.

The match opened with controversy. In the 12th minute, Preston Judd put the ball in the net for San Jose Earthquakes, but a VAR review chalked it off a minute later. That early scare served as a wake-up call, and Colorado Rapids took charge of the game, showing it on the scoreboard in the 26th minute: Donavan Phillip headed home from close range to make it 1-0, finishing off a cross from Paxten Aaronson that came from a corner kick.

With that lead in hand, the hosts went into the break comfortably, though San Jose Earthquakes didn't sit back and gave a warning with a shot from Paul Marie in first-half stoppage time. The second half opened with Colorado Rapids pressing again: Paxten Aaronson tested the visiting goalkeeper twice in the opening minutes, but the keeper answered well both times.

The equalizer came in the 56th minute, on a play that mixed a set piece with opportunism: after a free kick was taken, Ronaldo Vieira headed a pass into the path of Dave Romney, who finished with his left foot from the center of the box, low and inside the post, for the 1-1.

From there, the match turned into end-to-end action without either side finding the goal to break the tie. Colorado Rapids had several chances late on, with shots from Wayne Frederick and Darren Yapi failing to find the target, while San Jose Earthquakes looked for a second through Ousseni Bouda and Preston Judd, also without luck. The match wound down with a free kick from Eduard Löwen that sailed just wide, and that was that.

What the numbers say

The stats make clear who drove the game at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Colorado Rapids controlled the ball and generated more offensive volume, though without the finishing touch needed to pull away on the scoreboard.

The shots on target number stands out: ten shots on frame for Colorado Rapids against just three for San Jose Earthquakes, a gap that didn't translate into goals. Based on our post-match estimate, the match xG finished at 1.441 for the home side and 1.204 for the visitors, figures that confirm the game was close in terms of real danger created, even though Colorado Rapids took more shots.

Pre-match projections had pointed to an open contest, giving Colorado Rapids a 36% chance, 27% for a draw and 37% for San Jose Earthquakes, with combined expected goals of 3.03. The final result, with a goal apiece, ended up matching that forecast of balance fairly well, even if the possession split on the field was anything but even.

The draw leaves San Jose Earthquakes in fourth place in the Western Conference with 46 points from 28 games played, while Colorado Rapids remain in eighth with 37 points from the same number of matches. The nine-point gap between the two sums up the different moments each club is going through at this stage of the MLS season, even if on this afternoon in Colorado it was the home side that did more to deserve the win, without getting it.