Jasinski's header rescues 2-2 draw for San Jose Earthquakes against Colorado in match with two red cards

Jack Jasinski showed up in the six-yard box in the 82nd minute to bury a point-blank header and make it 2-2 between San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids at PayPal Park. It was the perfect ending to a match that had everything: four goals, two red cards and a swing nobody saw coming when San Jose went down to ten men.

The home side started strong. Just 14 minutes in, Reid Roberts rose to head home from close range into the top left corner, off a cross from Timo Werner that originated from a corner kick. The Earthquakes were dominating and looked set to control the match, but Colorado answered quickly: in the 25th minute, Morgan Whittaker finished with his left foot from the center of the box, assisted by Wayne Frederick, making it 1-1 at the break.

The second half opened evenly, with more fouls than clear chances, until the match turned on its head in the span of two minutes. In the 70th minute, Timo Werner was shown a straight red card for San Jose, leaving the home team with ten men. Colorado wasted no time capitalizing: two minutes later, in the 72nd minute, Darren Yapi finished low with his right foot, just inside the left post, assisted by Georgi Minoungou, to make it 1-2.

But the script flipped again almost immediately. In the 74th minute, Kosi Thompson was also sent off, this time for Colorado, leaving the match at ten against ten. With that reset, San Jose pushed forward in the closing minutes and found its reward: in the 82nd minute, Jasinski rose for the equalizing header, assisted by Niko Tsakiris off another corner. There were no more goals, despite eight minutes of stoppage time and a couple of close chances for Preston Judd.

What the numbers say

San Jose was sharper in front of goal despite playing more than twenty minutes with a man down, finishing with more shots, more shots on target and more corners. Colorado, meanwhile, controlled the ball more and completed more passes, a possession edge that never translated into the same offensive punch.

The post-match xG calculated from the shots in the game backs up that impression: San Jose generated 2.63 expected goals to Colorado's 1.22, a wide gap suggesting the home side deserved more than a draw, even while playing a man short for a good chunk of the second half.

Beforehand, our model had projected a 46% chance of a San Jose win, 28% for a draw and 26% for Colorado, with a combined total of 2.79 expected goals. The result ended up matching the least likely outcome on paper, the draw, though the number of goals scored (four) exceeded the projection.

The point leaves San Jose Earthquakes in fifth place in the West with 49 points from 32 matches played, while Colorado Rapids sit seventh with 43 points from the same number of games, six points separating the two sides. Neither team could claim the full three points in a match decided by red cards, a flurry of corners and a late resistance that neither side could fully break down.