Columbus Crew host CF Montreal in Eastern Conference basement battle

Columbus Crew host CF Montreal at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field in a direct battle to climb out of the bottom half of the Eastern Conference table in MLS. Neither club is in good form right now, but home advantage and a favorable recent head to head give the Ohio side a slight edge heading in.

Current Form

Columbus Crew sit 11th in the East with a record of 19 games played, 5 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, scoring 27 goals and conceding 31. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, two draws and a loss, an inconsistent stretch but one with a bit more stability than their opponent's. They average 1.33 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game, and have kept a clean sheet in just 33 percent of their outings. Wessam Abou Ali leads the attack with 5 goals, and the team tends to do most of its damage between the 31st and 45th minutes.

CF Montreal, meanwhile, sit 14th, just three points behind the Crew in the standings. Their record on the season reads 19 games played, 4 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, with 25 goals scored and a worrying 36 allowed. Their recent form points to a team without direction: no wins in their last five matches, with three draws and two losses. Defense is their biggest problem, having kept a clean sheet in just 11 percent of games while conceding an average of 2.787 goals per match. Prince Owusu is their top scorer with 11 goals, and the team tends to strike early, within the first 15 minutes.

Head to Head

History clearly favors Columbus Crew. Of the 8 meetings between these two clubs, the home side has won 4, there have been 3 draws, and CF Montreal has won just once. In terms of goals, the Crew has scored 15 against Montreal's 10.

Probable Lineups

As a probable lineup, though with low reliability based on recent patterns, Columbus Crew could send out Patrick Schulte in goal, a back line of Sean Zawadzki, Malte Amundsen, Rudy Camacho and Steven Moreira, a midfield of Dylan Chambost, Taha Habroune, Tarun Karumanchi and Mohamed Farsi, with Daniel Gazdag leading the attack after starting the last six matches.

On the visitors' side, with medium reliability, CF Montreal would likely field Sebastian Breza in net, a back line of Luca Petrasso, Brayan Vera, Dawid Bugaj, Jalen Neal and Efrain Morales, a double pivot of Victor Loturi and Matty Longstaff, and a front three featuring Hennadii Synchuk, Prince Owusu and Noah Streit.

Match Probabilities

The model gives Columbus Crew a clear edge, though not an overwhelming one: a 57 percent win probability against 20 percent for their rivals shows this match is far from a sure thing. The projection also calculates expected goals of 2.06 for the home side and 1.16 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.22 that supports a 67 percent likelihood of the match going over 2.5 goals. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 43 percent. This is a projection based on season trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line.

With both teams needing points to climb the Eastern Conference table, the match should carry an attacking rhythm, especially given the defensive fragility both sides have shown throughout the season.