Columbus Crew looks to halt its slide against winless Red Bulls

Columbus Crew arrives having won just once in its last five matches, while New York Red Bulls hasn't won any of its own. When two teams from the lower half of the MLS Eastern Conference meet at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, what's on the line isn't just the standings, it's who stops the slide first.

The Crew sit in 13th place with 23 points from 24 games played (6 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses, 35 goals scored and 41 allowed). Their recent form has been rough: four losses and just one win in their last five outings. The Red Bulls are just a notch above, in 12th place, with 27 points (7 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses, 32 goals scored and 48 allowed, the worse goal difference of the two). Their streak offers little comfort either: three losses and two draws in their last five matches, with no wins at all. The gap between the two sides in the table is just 4 points.

The season's trends, though, need some context. At home in MLS 2026 (a sample of 12 matches), the Crew average 1.42 goals scored and 1.16 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 33% of matches, and their most productive stretch comes between the 31st and 45th minutes. Wessam Abou Ali stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with 5 goals. On the road, the Red Bulls this season average 1.16 goals scored to 2.08 allowed away from home, with clean sheets in just 8% of matches, and their best scoring window is the opening stretch, between minute 0 and 15. Julian Hall leads that sample with 9 goals, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 7 and Eric Choupo-Moting with 3.

The head-to-head record favors the Crew: of 8 meetings, they won 4, drew 2 and lost 2, scoring 15 goals against 10 allowed versus the Red Bulls.

Probable lineups

As an estimate based on recent matches, and with medium reliability, the Crew could start Patrick Schulte in goal; Malte Amundsen, Sean Zawadzki, Steven Moreira and Cesar Ruvalcaba on defense; Mohamed Farsi, Tarun Karumanchi and Andre Gomes in midfield; and Taha Habroune, Brais Mendez and Josef Martinez up top.

For New York Red Bulls, with high reliability, the likely lineup would have Ethan Horvath in goal; Justin Che, Julian Bazan, Dylan Nealis and Matthew Dos Santos on defense; Adri Mehmeti, Emil Forsberg and Ronald Donkor in midfield; and Cade Cowell, Julian Hall and Jorge Ruvalcaba up front.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Columbus Crew the edge, though not by a wide margin: the gap with a draw and with an away win isn't huge.

This is our own estimate drawn from season trends, not a betting line or a closed forecast. On top of that, our model puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 63%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 62%, two figures that line up with the shaky defenses both sides have shown in their respective samples.

With the Crew needing to snap a bad run at home and the Red Bulls chasing their first win after five matches without one, the game at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field looks likely to produce more than one goal. The only question is which side ends up with more of them.