Nashville SC Hosts a Struggling New York Red Bulls Side, 32 Points Apart in the Standings

The Eastern Conference leader hosts at GEODIS Park a rival that arrives with the worst goal differential among the teams from mid-table down. Nashville SC sits atop MLS with 71 points through 32 matches, while New York Red Bulls sit 11th with 39 points. The gap in the standings is 32 points, and that alone tells much of the story before a ball is kicked.

The Tennessee side comes in with a record of 21 wins, 8 draws and just 3 losses this season, with 66 goals scored and only 23 allowed. Over their last five matches they've picked up three wins and two draws, with no losses. At home in MLS this season (a sample of 16 matches), Nashville averages 2.82 goals scored per game while conceding just 0.76, keeping a clean sheet in half of those contests. Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar lead the attack in that span with 18 and 17 goals, respectively.

The picture for New York Red Bulls looks quite different. In league play they've gone 11-6-15, with 43 goals scored and 59 allowed. Over their last five games they won two and lost three. On the road in MLS this season (a sample of 16 matches), they average 1.18 goals per game and concede 1.88, keeping a clean sheet in just 19% of those outings. Julian Hall is their top scorer in that span with 12 goals, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 8.

What the History Says

The two sides have met 8 times, with 2 wins for Nashville, 2 for New York Red Bulls and 4 draws. The goal tally is tight as well: 4 for the home side and 5 for the visitors across those matches.

Projected Lineups

Nashville SC's projected starting eleven has Brian Schwake in goal; Jeisson Palacios, Maxwell Woledzi, Reed Baker-Whiting and Andy Najar across the back line; Cristian Espinoza, Hany Mukhtar, Matthew Corcoran, Patrick Yazbek and Elias Saad in midfield; and Sam Surridge leading the line.

For the visitors, New York Red Bulls' projected eleven features Ethan Horvath in net; Dylan Nealis, Devin Padelford, Julian Bazan and Tim Parker across the back; Mohammed Sofo, Ronald Donkor and Adri Mehmeti in midfield; and an attacking trio of Cade Cowell, Jorge Ruvalcaba and Julian Hall.

What the Model Says

Our in-house model, built on this season's trends, points to a clear edge for the home side:

The expected goals numbers back that up: 2.05 for Nashville against 0.75 for New York Red Bulls, for an estimated total of 2.81. These are figures from our own calculations, not sportsbook odds, but they do capture the gap between a solid home leader and a visitor that has struggled away from its own stadium. On top of that, our trends put the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals at 69% and the chance of both teams scoring at 76%.

With that contrast in the numbers, GEODIS Park is set to host a matchup with clearly defined roles: a home side defending top spot in the East, and a visitor looking to exploit any opening to grab something on the road.