New England Revolution host a struggling Red Bulls side with a 16-point cushion in the standings

New England Revolution head into this MLS matchup on a three-game winning streak after a rough patch, hosting a New York Red Bulls team that is well off the pace in the Eastern Conference at Gillette Stadium. The game pits the second-place team against the ninth-place team, and while the standings don't always tell the whole story, here they point to a clear gap: there are 16 points separating the two sides.

The hosts arrive with 55 points from 31 games played, built on 17 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, with 51 goals scored and 42 allowed. Over their last five matches they've picked up three wins and two losses, with both defeats coming at the start of that stretch before closing on an upswing. The Red Bulls, meanwhile, have 39 points from their 31 games, with 11 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses, and a negative goal differential (41 scored, 56 allowed). In their last five outings they won two and lost three, without any clear pattern to the results.

There are a few context numbers worth a look, even if they don't come from this exact tournament: playing at home in the 2026 MLS season, the Revolution average 1.798 goals scored and 1.075 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 33% of matches, across a sample of 15 games. Carles Gil is their top scorer in that sample with 13 goals, followed by Dor Turgeman with 10. The Red Bulls, on the road in that same season, average 1.137 goals scored and 1.798 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 20% of their 15 matches. Julian Hall tops that list with 11 goals.

What the head to head says

The series between these two clubs is fairly even in terms of wins, but not in goals: of the 8 meetings on record, New England has won 3, there has been 1 draw and the Red Bulls have won 4. In total goals, the visitors hold the edge, 16 to 12.

Likely lineups

For the Revolution, the expected lineup has Matt Turner in goal, a back line of Ethan Kohler, Peyton Miller, Joshua Wynder and Will Sands, a midfield of Matt Polster, Carles Gil and Jackson Yueill, and an attacking trio of Dor Turgeman, Dániel Gazdag and Luca Langoni. This is a medium-confidence projection built from the team's recent lineups.

The Red Bulls, with a higher-confidence projected lineup based on recent form, would field Ethan Horvath in goal, Julián Bazán, Dylan Nealis, Devin Padelford and Tim Parker on defense, Mohammed Sofo, Ronald Donkor and Adri Mehmeti in midfield, and an attacking front of Cade Cowell, Julian Hall and Jorge Ruvalcaba.

What the odds say

Our model has New England as the favorite, though not overwhelmingly so: there's real room for an upset or a draw.

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a definitive prediction or a betting line. The same model projects expected goals of 1.8 for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors, an estimated total of 3.06 goals, in line with a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match and a 59% chance that both teams find the net.

With the Revolution looking to keep their momentum going at home and the Red Bulls needing points away from their own stadium, the match at Gillette Stadium promises plenty of action on the scoreboard before it's over.