Columbus Crew hosts a D.C. United side in crisis, with the odds on their side

Columbus Crew are riding a hot streak, D.C. United are in free fall, and that contrast shows in everything surrounding this match at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field. MLS pits two Eastern Conference sides against each other who find themselves in opposite situations right now: one piling up results, the other needing to stop the bleeding after a string of losses.

The Crew sit ninth in the East with 41 points from 32 games played (12 wins, 5 draws, 15 losses, with 52 goals scored and 49 allowed). But that snapshot on the table doesn't tell the whole story: over their last five matches they've gone four wins and a draw, no losses, a run that has them feeling good heading into this one. D.C. United, meanwhile, sit four spots lower, in 13th place, with a record of 7 wins, 12 draws and 13 losses (39 goals scored, 57 allowed) and a deeply negative goal differential. Their immediate form is even more worrying: of their last five matches, they've lost four and won just one. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 8 points.

Looking only at home matches in the 2026 MLS season (16 games), the Crew average 1.62 goals scored and 1.18 allowed per match, with 25% of those games ending in a clean sheet, and they tend to score most often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Brais Mendez, Wessam Abou Ali and Taha Habroune share the scoring lead in that sample with 5 goals apiece. On the other side, D.C. United, looking only at road games in that same season (16 matches), average 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 allowed, with just 19% clean sheets, and their most productive scoring window also falls between minutes 16 and 30. Tai Baribo is by far their top offensive threat in that sample, with 16 goals, well ahead of Louis Munteanu (6) and Lucas Bartlett (4).

The head-to-head history doesn't help United's case either: in 8 previous meetings, the Crew won 4, there were 3 draws and just 1 away win, with the Crew outscoring D.C. United 14 goals to 9 overall.

Projected Lineups

For the Crew, the expected XI features Patrick Schulte in goal, a back line of Steven Moreira, Sean Zawadzki and Malte Amundsen, and an attacking group with Taha Habroune, Dylan Chambost and Mohamed Farsi alongside Santiago Rodriguez, Anass Zaroury, Brais Mendez and Gonzalo Tapia, all of whom have featured regularly over the last six matches. D.C. United, for their part, would likely field Sean Johnson in net, a defensive line of Kye Rowles, Keisuke Kurokawa, Silvan Hefti and Lucas Bartlett, and up top Andre Dozzell, Kimito Nono and Brandon Servania feeding Peglow, Tai Baribo and Jackson Hopkins. In both cases these are lineups projected from recent matches, not official confirmations.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a clear edge to the Crew, though it doesn't completely rule out the visitors:

This is our own estimate drawn from season-long trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals figures back up that read: 2.05 for the Crew against 0.93 for D.C. United, a combined total of 2.98. On top of that, our model puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 59% and the chance of both teams scoring at 56%, signs that even though the home side is a clear favorite, this isn't shaping up to be a tightly locked-down affair defensively.

With momentum on one side and a results crisis on the other, the matchup in Columbus looks like a good opportunity for the Crew to confirm their turnaround, while D.C. United need to snap their skid before the gap in the standings gets even more uncomfortable.