Columbus Crew stun FC Dallas 2-0 in match marked by VAR disallowed goal

FC Dallas waited on a VAR review that never came through in its favor, and in the meantime Columbus Crew left Toyota Stadium with a 2-0 win that nobody saw coming based on the pregame odds. Gonzalo Tapia opened the scoring in the 17th minute and Santiago Rodriguez sealed it in the 69th, and in between sat a stretch where the home side thought it had pulled one back, only to end up with nothing.

The opener came from a textbook move: Anass Zaroury crossed into the box and Tapia, with his left foot, finished low by the post to make it 0-1. Dallas had started the brighter of the two sides, with early shots from Patrickson Delgado and Osaze Urhoghide, but couldn't sustain that version of itself, and Columbus struck on its first clear chance.

The second half brought the moment that defined the match: in the 59th minute, Shaq Moore put the ball in the net and Toyota Stadium erupted, but the VAR review chalked off the goal a minute later and the score stayed at 0-1. It was the closest Dallas came to flipping the script, and the officiating decision left it empty handed. Just nine minutes later, Tapia tried a header that the goalkeeper turned away, but on the ensuing play Santiago Rodriguez finished from point blank range with his left foot, by the left post, making it 0-2 and putting the result out of reach.

The numbers behind the match

Dallas held more possession, took more shots and won more corners, but lacked the finishing touch when it mattered most. Our own xG figure for the match, an in-house estimate based on the shots taken, has Columbus slightly ahead despite seeing less of the ball: 1.51 to the home side's 1.12.

The preview numbers had been fairly even: our projection gave FC Dallas a 44% chance to win, against 30% for Columbus Crew and 26% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.73 for the home side and 1.40 for the visitors. The result ended up running completely counter to that forecast: the team given fewer chances on paper walked away with all three points, and did so with authority in both goals it scored.

In the Eastern Conference standings, this result puts Columbus Crew in ninth place with 41 points from 32 matches played (12 wins, 5 draws and 15 losses), still well behind the top of the table occupied by Nashville SC, New England Revolution and Inter Miami CF. For FC Dallas, the blow stings more because of how it unfolded: with more than half the possession, more shots and a disallowed goal that could have changed the story, it still wasn't enough to get on the scoresheet.

Columbus landed two clean strikes and got a VAR call to go its way; Dallas is left with the feeling of having created enough not to lose, and with the lingering question of what might have happened had that Shaq Moore effort stood.