Crystal Palace host crisis-hit Liverpool in a match the numbers can't call

Crystal Palace arrives at this match having conceded 21 goals so far in the Premier League, the worst goal difference in the entire table at -12, and welcomes to Selhurst Park a Liverpool side coming off two straight losses but still sitting in the upper half of the standings. Rarely does a clash between 18th and 6th place generate this much uncertainty, and the numbers explain why.

Pierre Sage's side sits 18th with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses in 9 matches played, with 9 goals scored and 21 allowed. Over their last five matches they've managed just one win, two draws and two defeats, an inconsistent stretch that hasn't quite turned things around. Liverpool, meanwhile, sit sixth with 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their 9 matches, with 11 goals scored and 9 allowed, though they arrive bruised after a win, a draw and two defeats in their last five outings. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 8 points.

Playing at home in the Premier League this season, Crystal Palace has averaged 1.508 goals scored and 2.498 conceded per match across a sample of 4 games, without a single clean sheet, and their most productive scoring window has come between the 31st and 45th minutes. Liverpool, on the other hand, as visitors and also over 4 matches this campaign, average 1.755 goals scored and just 0.743 allowed, with a 50% clean sheet rate and their heaviest offensive output coming between minutes 0 and 15. These are separate samples from the overall record, but they offer a sense of each team's patterns depending on home or away status.

What the history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with 3 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 draws and 3 wins for Liverpool. In the combined goal tally, the home side has scored 11 and the visitors 10, an even history that doesn't point to a clear trend for either team.

Possible lineups

Crystal Palace's likely XI, rated medium reliability based on recent matches, points to Dean Henderson in goal; a back line of Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot, Honest Ahanor and Axel Disasi; Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell and Anan Khalaili in midfield; and up front Yéremy Pino, Daichi Kamada and Jean-Philippe Mateta. On Liverpool's side, rated low reliability, the estimated lineup would be Alisson Becker between the posts; Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araujo, Kostas Tsimikas and Milos Kerkez in defense; Alexis Mac Allister, Trey Nyoni, Cody Gakpo and Rio Ngumoha in midfield; and Bradley Barcola as the attacking reference point. These are projected lineups, not confirmed ones.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Liverpool a moderate edge, though no result is ruled out:

With 43% for Liverpool against 30% for Crystal Palace and 27% for a draw, the split is far from lopsided: the visitors go in as favorites, but not by an overwhelming margin. Our model's expected goals sit at 1.35 for the home side and 1.67 for the visitors, an estimated total of 3.02, figures that line up with trends pointing to a 63% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 75% chance both teams find the net. Worth noting that this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With a home defense that has leaked goals in nearly every match this season and a Liverpool side needing to snap its recent slide, Selhurst Park has the makings of an open contest in the Premier League.