Kamada bails out 10-man Crystal Palace with last-gasp equalizer against Hoffenheim

Crystal Palace had to wait until the final minute to salvage a point that, before kickoff, looked like it should have come far more easily. The 1-1 draw against TSG Hoffenheim at Selhurst Park arrived right as the clock hit the 90th minute, with Daichi Kamada popping up to prevent a defeat that, with Palace down to 10 men from the 76th minute on, had looked increasingly likely.

The match, part of the Europa League league phase, started with a blow nobody in the stands saw coming so early. Barely six minutes had gone by when Alexander Prass curled a left-footed finish from the center of the box to make it 0-1, finishing off a counterattack set up by Tim Lemperle. The goal silenced Selhurst Park and forced Palace to play catch-up for the rest of the afternoon.

What followed was a scrappy first half, with plenty of midfield battles and few clear-cut chances despite the effort on both sides. Hoffenheim threatened through Fisnik Asllani, Andrej Kramaric and Natnael Abraha, all testing the home goalkeeper without luck, while Palace answered with Jean-Philippe Mateta and Yeremy Pino, unable to find an equalizer before the break. The first 45 minutes ended with Hoffenheim ahead 0-1.

The red card that changed everything

In the second half, things got even tougher for the home side. Adam Wharton, already on a yellow card, picked up his second in the 76th minute for a dangerous challenge, leaving his team to play the final 14 minutes plus stoppage time with 10 men. It looked like the decisive blow for a Crystal Palace side that couldn't find space against a well-organized Hoffenheim team that had chances of its own, including a shot from Dario Osorio that went wide and a late attempt from Dwight McNeil.

But soccer saves its surprises for the very last breath. In the 90th minute, with time running out, Daichi Kamada showed up in the middle of the box and finished with his right foot into the back of the net to make it 1-1, a scoreline that would hold up even through the three minutes of stoppage time that followed.

What the numbers say

The stats reflect an even match, with Palace controlling the ball a bit more but without turning that into a clear edge in chances created:

The split in chances also shows up in the estimated xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots: 1.658 for Crystal Palace and 1.686 for TSG Hoffenheim, a razor-thin difference that confirms just how tight the contest was, even though it ended with one team down a man.

The result, though, falls short of what was projected before kickoff. Our preview gave Crystal Palace a 58% chance of winning, against just 19% for Hoffenheim and 23% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.14 for the home side versus 1.19 for the visitors. Reality played out very differently: Palace never managed to impose that script, trailed on the scoreboard for almost the entire match, and ended up grateful for Kamada's goal just to avoid defeat while down a man.

In the standings, the draw leaves Crystal Palace with 5 points from four matches played, just one point ahead of Hoffenheim, who sit on 4. Neither side leaves Selhurst Park feeling particularly strengthened, but a last-gasp point earned with 10 men on the field is the kind of result Palace may come to appreciate when they look back at the table later on.