Crystal Palace host a surging Hoffenheim with Europa League points on the line

Crystal Palace arrives bruised, having lost three of its last five matches, and welcomes to Selhurst Park a TSG Hoffenheim side that has gone five straight outings without finding defensive balance. It's the Europa League league phase, and both clubs face each other needing points to avoid falling off the pace in the overall standings.

In the competition, Crystal Palace has posted a win, a draw and a loss in three matches played, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. The recent run, though, paints a tougher picture: over its last five matches the club has managed one win, one draw and three losses. Hoffenheim, for its part, has a similar record in the tournament (one win and two losses in three matches, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded), but arrives with more momentum: three wins, one draw and one loss in its last five outings.

In the overall table both sides sit far from the top spots: Crystal Palace is 15th with 4 points, and Hoffenheim is 23rd with 3, just 1 point separating the two. With only three matches played, the standings still say little about each squad's true level.

Beyond the tournament record, it's worth looking at how each side has performed lately in this same competition: across the three matches that make up that sample, Crystal Palace averages 2.667 goals scored and 1.667 conceded per game in this season's Europa League, both home and away, with a 33% clean sheet rate, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. Yeremy Pino stands out as the club's top scorer in that sample, with three goals. Hoffenheim, in that same stretch and competition, averages 1.667 goals scored and 1.667 conceded, also with a 33% clean sheet rate, but its best scoring spell comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Likely lineups

Crystal Palace could start with Walter Benitez in goal, a back line of Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot and Axel Disasi, and a midfield featuring Tyrick Mitchell, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada and Oscar Mingueza, with Yeremy Pino, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Dwight McNeil forming the attack. This is an estimated lineup, drawn from recent matches and not confirmed.

On the German side, Hoffenheim could line up with Oliver Baumann in goal, a defense of Koki Machida, Ozan Kabak and Mats Rots, a midfield of Leon Avdullahu, Andrej Kramaric, Wouter Burger, Adam Daghim and Alexander Prass, and Adam Hlozek alongside Fisnik Asllani up top. This, too, is a projection rather than an official lineup.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Crystal Palace a clear edge as the home side, though not an overwhelming one:

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals back up that reading: 2.14 for Crystal Palace against 1.19 for Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.33 that lines up with 83% of our projections pointing to more than 2.5 goals in the match, and 67% pointing to both teams scoring.

With Crystal Palace looking to stop its recent slide and Hoffenheim trying to keep its momentum going from the past few weeks, Selhurst Park promises an open game, the kind that tends to produce goals at both ends.