Czechia and England chase their first point of the Nations League in Prague

After matchday one, both Czechia and England find themselves in the same spot: zero points and a loss in their group A3 opener in the UEFA Nations League. That makes this meeting at the Fortuna Arena in Prague a must-win for both sides, even if the odds are far from evenly split.

The Czechs fell 2-1 in their opener and the broader picture is not much better: across their last five matches they have managed just one win, one draw and three losses. What worries the home crowd most is the lack of goals. In the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away, Czechia averaged 0.667 goals per game and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches. That sample comes from a different competition and should not be read as a direct reflection of their current Nations League form, but it does point to a limited attack.

England, managed by Thomas Tuchel, also lost their group opener, 3-2, and shows the same tournament line as their rival: one match, one loss, two goals for and three against. Their recent form tells a different story, though. Over their last five matches England have won three and lost two, a far sturdier record. In that same 2025 World Cup sample, this time drawn from seven matches, England averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 29% of them. Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka stand out as the top scoring contributors in that stretch, and all three are expected to start tonight.

In the group table, Spain and Croatia sit on top with 3 points each after winning their openers, while Czechia and England share the bottom with 0 points and a negative goal difference. The gap between the two teams tonight is zero points, which makes this, in practical terms, a small final to avoid falling further off the pace in the group.

The two sides have met just once before, with England winning 1-0.

Projected lineups

Rated as low confidence, the projected Czechia XI, based on recent matches, would have Matej Kovár in goal, a back line of Robin Hranác, Vladimír Coufal, Ladislav Krejcí and Stepán Chaloupek, and a midfield of Michal Sadílek, Lukás Cerv, Pavel Sulc and Alexandr Sojka, with Adam Hlozek and Patrik Schick up top.

On the English side, rated medium confidence, Jordan Pickford is projected in goal behind a defense of Marc Guéhi, Ezri Konsa, Nico O'Reilly and Jarell Quansah, a midfield of Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka, with Harry Kane leading the line.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives England a 73% chance of winning, against just 10% for Czechia and 17% for a draw. That is a clear gap, not an even matchup.

This is EnPelotas' own projection, not a betting line. Two more readings add to the picture: a 65% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance both teams find the net, pointing toward an open, high scoring affair.

With expected goals showing a gap of more than 1.5 in the visitors' favor, Czechia will need more than home field advantage at the Fortuna Arena to grab their first point in group A3.