D.C. United beats Columbus Crew 2-1 with just 28% possession thanks to Tai Baribo brace

With just 28% possession and ten shots to Columbus Crew's sixteen, D.C. United still walked away with the win: 2-1 at Audi Field, with Tai Baribo carrying the team on his back with a first-half brace. The stat matters even more considering the Crew touched the ball more than twice as often as United (731 passes to 281) and still came away empty handed.

United struck first and struck fast. In the 23rd minute, Louis Munteanu set up Baribo, who finished from close range into the center of the goal to make it 1-0. Thirteen minutes later, Baribo struck again, this time meeting a Kimito Nono cross with a low shot near the left post to make it 2-0 before halftime. In between there were serious warning signs from United: Nono rattled the crossbar in the 15th minute, and in the second half Kye Rowles would hit the woodwork again in the 49th. Columbus, for its part, was far from passive in that first half: Santiago Rodriguez had a shot stopped right at the top corner in the 10th minute, and Malte Amundsen and Dylan Chambost had several chances that failed to find the target.

Crew claws one back but falls short

The second half opened with an immediate blow for Columbus: just one minute in, in the 48th, off a corner kick, Santiago Rodriguez, assisted by Josef Martinez, pulled one back with a shot from outside the box that snuck in on the right side of the goal. The 2-1 scoreline added tension to the match, and three minutes later the Crew appealed for a penalty that VAR reviewed and waved off: the call was clear, there was no penalty for United, against the visitors' claim.

From there the match turned into a Columbus Crew siege, with the visitors piling on crosses and shots from distance after bringing on Brais Mendez, Andre Gomes and Gonzalo Tapia. Mendez struck the crossbar in the 69th minute and tried his luck several more times from outside the area, but the D.C. United defense, with Sean Johnson between the posts, held on through six minutes of second-half stoppage time, during which United, with Brandon Servania and Nathan Ordaz already on the field, even had chances to extend the lead.

The numbers behind the match

The shots-on-target numbers tell the story well: United, with less of the ball, was more clinical in the box, something also reflected in the post-match expected goals estimate, with 2.251 for the home side compared to 0.772 for the visitors. It's a measure of what each team generated from its chances, not a prediction, but it confirms that home-side efficiency made the difference against a rival that dominated possession without turning it into real danger until well into the second half.

The result also runs counter to what was projected before kickoff: our preview gave D.C. United just a 28% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw and a 45% chance to Columbus Crew, with expected goals of 1.33 for the home side and 1.72 for the visitors. None of that held up: the team given the least chance was the one that walked away with all three points, and did so with authority on the scoreboard.

What the result means in the standings

In the MLS Eastern Conference, D.C. United came into this match in 11th place with 28 points, while Columbus Crew sat 13th with 23, just five points separating the two sides. A win that, beyond its effect on the standings, leaves United with a clear identity: few chances, but the ones that count, thanks to a Baribo who settled the match in under a quarter hour of effective play, between the 23rd and 36th minutes.