Unbeaten Deportivo Hosts Surging Sevilla with Sixth and Seventh Place on the Line

Deportivo de A Coruña arrives at this meeting at Riazor unbeaten, while Sevilla keeps an eye on the upper reaches of the table: just one point separates the two sides in the LaLiga standings. With sixth and seventh place up for grabs, this matchup looks like it could go either way, and the numbers back that up.

Deportivo has yet to taste defeat this season: in five matches played, they won two and drew three, without a single loss, scoring 9 goals and conceding 6. That solidity shows in their recent form, having strung together two draws, two wins and another draw in their last five outings. Sevilla, meanwhile, sits in sixth place with three wins, one draw and one loss, and arrives with momentum: over their last five matches they picked up three wins, one draw and just one defeat, closing out that stretch with a victory.

Outside of this competition, and only as a trend reference from the 2026 LaLiga season playing both home and away, Deportivo averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, without having kept a clean sheet in that five-game sample; their most productive scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes. Sevilla, in that same type of sample, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 20% of matches ending without conceding, and tends to find the net between the 46th and 60th minutes. These figures shouldn't be confused with the competition's official record, but they do paint a picture of two teams that generate and allow chances in equal measure.

A History That Clearly Favors Sevilla

The head-to-head record between these two sides is lopsided: in 8 previous meetings, Sevilla won 5, there were 3 draws, and Deportivo has yet to win a single one. The goal difference is also wide: 10 for Deportivo against 19 for Sevilla across that stretch. It's a history that carries weight, though it says nothing about how either side arrives today.

Probable Lineups

Deportivo, with a high-confidence projected lineup based on recent matches, is expected to field Leo Román in goal; Ximo Navarro, Lucas Noubi, Giacomo Quagliata and Bright Ede across the back line; Mario Soriano, Lorenzo Amatucci and Luismi Cruz in midfield; and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang alongside Bil Nsongo up top. Aubameyang stands out as the team's top scorer in the season trends mentioned above, with 5 goals in that sample.

Sevilla, with a medium-confidence projected lineup, could go with Odysseas Vlachodimos between the posts; Gabriel Suazo, Juan Iglesias, Kike Salas and Andrés Castrín at the back; Lucien Agoumé, Miguel Sierra, Jon Guridi and Isaac Romero in midfield; and Robbie Ure leading the attack.

What the Odds Say

Our model projects a very even match, with a slight edge for the home side:

None of the three outcomes stands out clearly: Deportivo's 37%, Sevilla's 33% and the 30% chance of a draw sketch out a wide open forecast. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. On top of that, our model gives a 100% probability that both teams will score and a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the idea of an open, attacking clash.

With Deportivo's home unbeaten run on the line and Sevilla looking to climb even higher, Riazor has all the ingredients for a tight, tense match with goals at both ends.