Deportivo and Osasuna Meet at Riazor in Direct Battle for Survival

Riazor hosts a lower-table clash that looks like a straight fight for survival: Deportivo and Osasuna arrive separated by just one point in the standings and with similar needs. Deportivo sits 13th with 11 points, and Osasuna follows in 16th place, also with 11. Neither side can afford to look too far down the LaLiga table right now.

The Galicians have posted 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in 10 matches, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded, an evenly matched team that neither blows teams away nor collapses defensively. The problem is they draw too often to climb the table. Over their last five games they've managed just one win, two draws and two losses, though they come in off a victory in their most recent outing. Osasuna, for their part, have a more uneven record in the competition: 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with a much rougher goal difference, 10 scored against 20 conceded. In their last five matches, though, the Navarrese have picked things up a bit, with two wins and two losses, including a victory in their most recent game.

At home so far in the 2026 LaLiga season, Deportivo is averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, without a single clean sheet across that five-game sample, and they tend to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is by far their top scorer in that span, with 5 goals. Osasuna look shakier on the road: 1.2 goals scored mixed with 3.4 conceded per match in that same sample, also without a clean sheet, with Ante Budimir as their main threat up front, having scored 7 goals in those five away trips. These are figures from the current season in this same competition, not the club's overall record, but they help explain the storyline: both sides concede easily under their respective conditions.

The head-to-head history offers no clear favorite either: in 8 meetings there have been 3 wins for Deportivo, 3 for Osasuna and 2 draws, with 11 goals for the Galician side against 8 for the Rojillos.

Probable Lineups

Tagged as low reliability since it's an estimate, Deportivo could start with Leo Roman in goal, a back line of Jose Maria Gimenez, Ximo Navarro, Giacomo Quagliata, David Mella and Bright Ede, a midfield of Riki Rodriguez, Diego Villares and Mario Soriano, and Bil Nsongo alongside Yeremay Hernandez up top. Osasuna, also as a likely setup, could line up with Aitor Fernandez in goal, a defense of Unai Santos, Inigo Arguibide, Abel Bretones and Alejandro Catena, with Jonathan Dubasin, Jon Moncayola, Iker Munoz and Asier Osambela in midfield, and Ante Budimir paired with Ruben Garcia in attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our model projects a very even match, with a slight tilt toward Deportivo for playing at home.

Expected goals reflect that same balance: 1.35 for Deportivo against 1.2 for Osasuna, a combined 2.54 that lines up with the 50% our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 goals, and a 48% probability that both teams score. It's worth repeating: these are our own estimates based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With both teams needing points and defenses that haven't quite managed to lock things down, Riazor could offer an open match, the kind decided by small details rather than a clear edge for either side.