Dinamo Zagreb Hosts Struggling N.E.C. as 72% Favorite in Europa League

Maksimir hosts a clash of very different needs this Thursday in the Europa League league phase: Dinamo Zagreb arrives unbeaten and eager to push into the top positions, while N.E.C. shows up as the tournament's bottom side, with just one point and a goal difference weighing heavily on them.

The Croatians have gone one win and one draw in two matches, with no goals conceded so far, and they also arrive having won three of their last five games overall, with one draw and only one loss in that stretch. The fact that they haven't conceded in the Europa League this season rests on a small sample of just two matches played, but it's one more argument in their favor at home. In that same competition, over that short sample of two games home and away, Dinamo kept a clean sheet 100% of the time and showed their best scoring stretch between the 76th and 90th minutes, with Dion Beljo as their main scoring threat in that window.

N.E.C., on the other hand, simply can't get going: a draw and a loss leave them with one goal scored and six conceded in the tournament, and their recent form hasn't helped either, with four draws and a loss in their last five matches, without a single win in that span. In that same short sample of two Europa League matches, the Dutch side failed to keep a clean sheet even once, and their lone goal came from Tjaronn Chery, with the 61st to 75th minute window as their most productive stretch.

In the standings, still provisional since both sides have only played two matches, Dinamo sits in 14th place with 4 points while N.E.C. is nearly at the bottom in 27th, with just 1 point. The gap between the two in the table stands at 3 points.

The head-to-head history between these two is brief: just one match played, won by Dinamo Zagreb 3-2. There isn't much more to draw from, but the precedent points in the same direction as the rest of the numbers in this preview.

Possible lineups

Dinamo Zagreb could take the field with Dominik Kotarski in goal, a back line of Sergi Dominguez, Matteo Perez Vinlof and Scott McKenna, a midfield of Josip Misic, Luka Stojkovic, Luka Ivanusec, Arber Hoxha and Mateo Lisica, and a forward pairing of Dion Beljo and Mislav Orsic up top. This is a lineup inferred from recent matches, with low reliability according to the analysis itself.

For N.E.C., the likely lineup would have Gonzalo Crettaz in goal, Tobias Storm, Deveron Fonville and Perr Schuurs in defense, Darko Nejasmic, Clement Bischoff and Kevin Kers in midfield, and an attack featuring Noe Lebreton, Bryan Linssen, Tjaronn Chery and Dusan Tadic. This, too, is an estimate rather than a confirmed starting eleven.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates the probabilities for this match as follows:

The favoritism here is clear and far from close: with 72% for the home side against 11% for the visitors, the model leaves little room for an upset, though soccer always keeps a few surprises in reserve. The same projection puts expected goals at 2.8 for Dinamo and 1.1 for N.E.C., for a combined total of 3.9 goals in the match. These are our own figures, derived from the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line.

With a Dinamo Zagreb side that hasn't conceded a goal in the tournament and an N.E.C. squad still searching for its first win, Maksimir is shaping up as an uphill battle for the Dutch side, who need to reverse a trend that, for now, isn't going their way.