Mukhtar's first-half brace lifts Nashville to a rout of Toronto FC

Hany Mukhtar scored twice in just 27 minutes, and that was all Nashville SC needed to cruise to a 2-0 win over Toronto FC at GEODIS Park. The match, part of the MLS regular season, was already decided by halftime, and the rest of the night was little more than a formality for the home side.

The first blow landed in the 15th minute: Cristian Espinoza whipped in a cross and Mukhtar popped up from close range to tap it in by the left post. Toronto had shown flashes before that, with a shot from Dániel Sallói that was blocked and another attempt from Jonathan Osorio that sailed wide, but the visitors never turned those chances into a goal. Nashville, meanwhile, kept pressing: Jeisson Palacios rattled the crossbar with a header, and Elias Saad tried his luck without success.

The second goal came right before the break, in the 42nd minute. This time Sam Surridge set up Mukhtar, who curled a right-footed finish from outside the box to make it 2-0 heading into halftime. The second half brought no further goals, even though Nashville kept creating chances: Surridge headed two efforts wide and Reed Baker-Whiting tried twice more, all off target. Toronto, for its part, showed a bit more life through Theo Corbeanu and Matheus Pereira, but never truly troubled the home goal.

A dominance the numbers confirm

Nashville's superiority wasn't just about clinical finishing. It showed up in every statistic of the night.

In possession, on corners and in shot volume, Nashville made clear who controlled the match from start to finish. Our expected goals estimate based on the shots taken in the match backs that up too: 3.03 for the home side against just 0.58 for the visitors, a gap that confirms the scoreline could easily have been even more lopsided.

Beforehand, our model projected a 65% chance of a Nashville win, a 23% chance of a draw and just 12% for Toronto, with expected goals of 2.02 for the home side and 0.78 for the visitors. The final result lined up fairly well with that read: Nashville won as the favorite, and the scoreline came in close to what we projected.

What the match means for the standings

In the Eastern Conference, Nashville SC holds onto first place with 60 points from 27 matches played (18 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses), while Toronto FC sits in 12th with 29 points from the same number of matches (6 wins, 11 draws and 10 losses). The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 31 points, a gulf that tonight's match only confirmed on the field.

For Toronto, the trip to GEODIS Park leaves little room for optimism: just 3 shots on target and possession that didn't even reach 40% tell the story of a night without answers against a rival that dictated terms from the opening minutes. Nashville, meanwhile, banks another show of strength at home, with Mukhtar once again the headline act and an attacking output that continues to underpin its place at the top of the conference.