Dortmund favored as struggling Villarreal arrives in crisis mode in Champions League

SIGNAL IDUNA PARK hosts a Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal with the two sides trending in clearly different directions. The Germans have won four of their last five matches, while the Yellow Submarine has dropped two straight in that same stretch. That alone explains the optimism surrounding Dortmund heading into this one.

Dortmund's recent run points to a solid side: a win, a draw, and three straight wins across their last five matches. Villarreal, on the other hand, arrives on a shakier run: win, draw, draw, loss, loss. These are small samples, but they set the tone for each squad's mood before kickoff.

Looking at trends from this season's Champions League at home, Dortmund is averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, with a 40% clean sheet rate, and tends to do most of its damage between the 46th and 60th minutes. Serhou Guirassy leads that sample with 4 goals, followed by Felix Nmecha with 3 and Daniel Svensson with 2.

The visitors' picture is far more complicated. In their away sample from the same competition, Villarreal has yet to score a goal (0 per match) and has conceded 2.25 on average, without a single clean sheet. When the team has managed to find the net in that sample, it has come mostly in the first 15 minutes. Tani Oluwaseyi, Santi Comesaña and Renato Veiga are the names who show up among the scorers in that scenario.

What the head to head says

Between the two clubs there are just two recorded meetings: one win apiece, with Dortmund ahead on the overall goal count, 4 to 2. It's a small sample, but it at least makes clear that neither side has held a crushing edge in their direct meetings.

Possible lineups

With low reliability based on recent matches, Dortmund could line up with Gregor Kobel in goal, a back line featuring Waldemar Anton, Joane Gadou and Filippo Mane, and a midfield built around Felix Nmecha and Daniel Svensson, both starters in each of the last six matches. Up front, Maximilian Beier, Konstantinos Karetsas and Samuele Inácio stand out as the most frequently used attacking options.

On Villarreal's side, with medium reliability, the projected lineup has Luiz Júnior in goal, a defensive line with Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño, Juan Foyth and Carlos Romero, and a midfield of Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pepe, Alberto Moleiro and Santi Comesaña. Up top, Ayoze Pérez and Georges Mikautadze have been the most regular forwards in recent call ups.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives Dortmund a clear but not overwhelming edge:

The breakdown makes Dortmund the favorite at 54%, while a draw and a Villarreal win split the rest almost evenly at 23% apiece. Expected goals also back up a script tilted toward the home side: 2.11 for Dortmund against 1.36 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.47 that pushes the probability of over 2.5 goals in the match to 55%. Interestingly, the model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 0%, suggesting a match where one side's control could prove decisive. Worth clarifying that all of this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With that backdrop, Signal Iduna Park is set for a match in which Dortmund starts as the favorite on paper, but Villarreal has room to complicate things if it can make the most of its chances in the opening minutes, its most productive window according to its own away trends.