Dreyer's brace pulls San Diego level with Inter Miami CF in stoppage time

There were just 11 minutes left when Anders Dreyer caught Inter Miami CF off guard with an angled finish from the center of the box, set up by a through ball from Jeppe Tverskov, and Nu Stadium fell silent. The match ended 2-2, but there was plenty on the way to that final score: a stunning free kick, a comeback, and one more goal from Dreyer, this time in second-half stoppage time, to snatch a point for San Diego.

The home side had responded quickly earlier in the game. In the 23rd minute, Lionel Messi made it 1-1 with a direct free kick that curled into the top left corner, the kind of play only he seems able to pull off. The rest of the first half was an exchange of chances: Matias Galarza, Luis Suarez and Messi himself all had looks, but the opposing goalkeeper stood tall and the score stayed put until the break.

In the second half, Inter Miami CF kept pushing forward, with Messi testing the keeper from distance on several occasions and Suarez hunting for the goal that would settle things. It came in the 73rd minute: Rodrigo De Paul slipped in a through ball and Suarez finished low, just inside the left post, for the 2-1. The home team looked to be on track to take all three points, but San Diego refused to fold. In the 81st minute, Dreyer struck again, once more set up by Tverskov, to make it 2-2 from the center of the area.

What the numbers say

Inter Miami CF was the sharper team going forward, though it couldn't turn that into a result. The home side led in shots and clear-cut chances, while San Diego held a bit more of the ball without needing much volume to do damage.

Based on our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Inter Miami CF generated 1.917 expected goals to San Diego's 1.401, a gap that backs up the home team's offensive edge, even though it wasn't enough to secure the win.

Our preview had given Inter Miami CF a 58% chance of winning, against 22% for San Diego and 20% for a draw. We also projected a high-scoring game, close to 4.25 total goals between both sides. That part checked out: there were four goals, though they split 2-2 instead of the home win the model saw as more likely. San Diego, with less possession and fewer shots, walked away with the point the preview had marked as the least probable outcome.

Where things stand in the table

In the MLS Eastern Conference, Inter Miami CF came into this match sitting third with 46 points from 26 games played (12 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses). The draw doesn't knock the club out of the hunt at the top, but it also doesn't let it gain ground on Nashville SC, which leads the way with 57 points, or on the New England Revolution, who also have 46 points.

The takeaway from this one is clear: Inter Miami CF created more and created better, with Messi driving the attack and Suarez finishing it off, but San Diego found in Dreyer the answer to snatch a point every time the scoreline looked ready to tilt in the home side's favor.