San Diego stuns Los Angeles FC at BMO Stadium with late Dreyer penalty

A penalty converted in the 88th minute gave San Diego a 0-1 win over Los Angeles Football Club at BMO Stadium, in an MLS matchup the home side controlled at times but couldn't finish off. Anders Dreyer stepped up to score from the spot and, despite getting sent off late on a second yellow card, had already sealed the win for his team.

A disallowed goal and a nerve-wracking finish

The match had its first moment of tension in the 20th minute, when Denis Bouanga put the ball in San Diego's net, but VAR overturned the goal after a review and the score stayed level. It was the closest call for the visitors in a first half in which Los Angeles Football Club created danger through shots from Son Heung-Min and Mark Delgado, without finding the breakthrough.

In the second half, the home side kept pushing with chances from Denis Bouanga and Eddie Segura, who tried his luck with headers more than once, but San Diego's goalkeeper came up big when needed. The match looked headed for a scoreless draw until, in the 86th minute, Ryan Porteous committed a handball penalty inside the area. After a VAR review confirmed the call in the 87th minute, Anders Dreyer stepped up and buried the penalty with a left-footed shot into the top corner in the 88th minute to make it 0-1, which held as the final score. The Danish forward picked up a yellow card for his celebration and, in stoppage time, a second caution left San Diego with ten men, though the team held on through the closing minutes as Son Heung-Min was also booked amid Los Angeles Football Club's late desperation.

The numbers behind the match

The stats point to an even contest in terms of danger created, though with different profiles: Los Angeles Football Club had more shots and corners, while San Diego controlled possession and passing.

According to our own estimate based on the match's shots, Los Angeles Football Club generated 1.69 expected goals to San Diego's 1.43, a minimal difference that confirms how tight the contest was despite the final result.

A projection that didn't hold up

Beforehand, our model had given Los Angeles Football Club a 60% chance of winning, against just 16% for San Diego and a 24% chance of a draw, with expected goals projected at 1.98 for the home side and 0.94 for the visitors. The result flatly contradicted that projection: the team that entered as the heavy favorite failed to score and fell to the side given the least chance on paper, another example of how a late penalty can upend any forecast.

What the match leaves behind

With this result, San Diego picks up a valuable road win in the MLS Western Conference, while Los Angeles Football Club is left with the feeling of having created enough to take all three points, but without the cutting edge needed in the opponent's box. Anders Dreyer's stoppage time red card didn't change the outcome, and the visiting side walked away with all three points despite finishing with a man down.