Atlas strikes early, survives with ten men to beat Necaxa 2-0

Only four minutes had gone by at Estadio Victoria when Ryan Mmaee tapped the ball into the net from close range, and VAR confirmed the goal after a review: Necaxa 0, Atlas 1. The match had barely started and already looked like an uphill battle. In the end, with a late goal from Manuel Capasso, Atlas sealed a 2-0 win in a Liga MX clash.

The opening goal came from a quick combination down the right flank: Florian Monzon first tried a shot that was blocked, and Mmaee pounced on the rebound to finish from point-blank range. With that early lead in hand, Atlas managed the rest of the first half without major scares, though Necaxa didn't sit back: Owen Gonzalez tested the goal a couple of times, Diego Ochoa tried a header, and Emilio Rodriguez also looked for the net, but none of them found a way through.

The second half brought a confusing moment that could have swung the game: in the 66th minute, the referee reviewed a red card shown to Elias Montiel on VAR and overturned it, but almost immediately afterward it was Milton Valenzuela who was sent off instead. Atlas played with ten men for nearly half an hour, a stretch in which Necaxa pushed hard through Javier Ruiz, Carlos Vargas and Juan Valencia, though none of their efforts paid off.

With Necaxa pressing for an equalizer, the match opened up in the closing minutes. First Florian Monzon rattled the crossbar from close range off a corner kick, and just a minute later, in the 89th minute, another corner led to Atlas's second goal: Manuel Capasso finished from the center of the box to make it 2-0.

What the numbers say

Necaxa had more possession and more total shots, but Atlas was sharper where it counted, creating more clear-cut chances and more shots on target despite playing much of the second half with a man down.

That gap in clear-cut chances also shows up in the xG calculated from the match's shots, which is our own estimate and not an official figure: Necaxa finished with 1.47 while Atlas reached 2.89, a number that backs up the edge that ultimately showed up on the scoreboard.

Before the match, our projection gave Necaxa a 42% chance of winning, against 32% for Atlas and 26% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 1.43 for the visitors. The result went against that forecast: the less-favored team came out on top, and did so clearly, with Necaxa unable to even pull one back.

What the result means for the standings

The win puts Atlas in second place with 21 points from 12 matches played, the product of 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. Necaxa, meanwhile, remains in 17th place with just 9 points from 12 outings (2 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses), a 12-point gap between the two sides that today's match only reinforced.