Atletico Madrid sweats more than expected to edge out a Deportivo side that stood toe to toe

It took Atletico Madrid just two minutes to settle something the entire first half couldn't. Barely into the second period, Julian Alvarez tapped in from close range off a pass from Alejandro Grimaldo, and that 1-0 ended up being all that separated the two sides at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. It was a match in which Deportivo de A Coruna made their visit anything but easy, and Atletico had to grind until the final whistle to hold onto the lead.

The first half was end to end without goals but with chances for both sides. Deportivo gave an early warning through Bil Nsongo and Miguel Loureiro, who tested Jan Oblak before the quarter-hour mark, while Atletico answered with attempts from Julian Alvarez, Pablo Barrios and Lee Kang-In, the latter grazing the crossbar near the end of the half. Neither goal gave way, and the score went into the break level at 0-0.

The story changed as soon as play resumed. Diego Simeone had shuffled his bench at the start of the second half, bringing on Giuliano Simeone and Robin Le Normand, and two minutes later it paid off: Grimaldo set it up and Julian Alvarez finished from close range to make it 1-0 in the 47th minute. From there, Atletico tried to extend the lead and Deportivo never stopped making things uncomfortable. Alex Baena, Lee Kang-In, Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez himself had shots that missed the target or were blocked, while Deportivo answered with attempts from Bil Nsongo, Mario Soriano, Luismi Cruz and Jonathan Asp Jensen in the closing minutes, but couldn't find the equalizer.

What the numbers say

Atletico dominated possession and generated more overall volume, but Deportivo was sharper in front of goal. Here's how the statistical breakdown of the match looked:

That shot distribution also shows up in our own post-match xG estimate: Deportivo generated 2.236 expected goals to Atletico's 2.128. In other words, in terms of chances created the match was practically even, with even a slight edge for the visitors, something the final one-goal margin doesn't fully capture.

The pre-match outlook had been considerably more favorable for Atletico: our projection gave them a 72% chance of winning, against 19% for a draw and just 9% for a Deportivo win, with expected goals of 2.35 for the home side and 0.73 for Deportivo. The final result, a tight 1-0, ended up being far closer than that projection suggested, and the match's own xG split confirms that Deportivo was no easy opponent to put away.

In the standings, the win moves Atletico Madrid into second place with 25 points from 10 games played (8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss), 14 points clear of Deportivo, who remain in tenth with 11 points through 10 matchdays (2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses). They're two very different realities in the table, but on the field the match was far more even than that gap suggests.

In the end, Atletico takes the three points thanks to an early second-half goal and a defensive effort it had to sustain until the final whistle against a Deportivo side that never let up. For the Galician club, there's the consolation of having competed toe to toe despite the unfavorable result.