AZ Hosts Hapoel Be'er Sheva as Slight Favorite, Model Shows

AZ arrives needing a response, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva is looking to hold on to the little it has: one point. The two meet at the AFAS Stadion in the Europa League, in a league-phase matchup where both sides got off on the wrong foot, albeit in different ways.

AZ lost its opening match in the competition, and the numbers reflect it: one game played, one loss, no goals scored, one conceded. The recent form picture, though, is more mixed: across its last five matches the club has put together two wins, a draw, and two losses, a blend of results that doesn't point to any clear trend. Hapoel, for its part, drew its European opener and didn't concede in that game, though its tournament record also stands at just one match played. Over the last five matches, the Israeli side looks sharper: three wins, a draw, and just one loss.

In the overall league-phase standings, both clubs sit near the bottom of the table with only a handful of points, a product of how early it is in the schedule: with just one match played apiece, the standings don't yet say much about either team's real level.

What the Trends Say (With Caveats)

Before drawing hasty conclusions, it's worth a caveat: the clean sheet and goal-timing data our model tracks for this Europa League season comes from just one match per team, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Hapoel has kept a clean sheet in 100% of that (admittedly tiny) sample, while AZ failed to keep its net shut in its one match. Neither side scored in that reference match, so there's no goals-per-game data to compare. It's a glimpse, not a real projection of either team's attacking level.

Probable Lineups

With medium reliability, AZ's probable XI under manager Leeroy Echteld would largely stick with the usual setup: Jari De Busser in goal, a back line of Wouter Goes, Mateo Chávez, Lewis Schouten, and Elijah Dijkstra, a midfield of Peer Koopmeiners, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Jordy Clasie, Dave Kwakman, and Calvin Stengs, with Mexx Meerdink leading the attack.

On the Hapoel Be'er Sheva side, managed by Ran Kozuch, the reliability of the probable lineup is lower. Ofir Marciano would start in goal, with Pedro Amador, Guy Mizrahi, and Miguel Vítor across the back, Niv Yehoshua, Lucas Ventura, Amankwah Forson, and Eliel Peretz in midfield, and an attacking trio of Javon East, Adrián Ugarriza, and Amir Ganah.

What the Model Shows

According to our in-house estimates, this match is far from a formality for either side:

AZ looks like the favorite by virtue of playing at home, but without a wide margin: 47% against Hapoel's 26% leaves the draw, at 27%, as a genuine possibility. Our model's expected goals back up that reading: 1.67 for AZ and 1.19 for Hapoel, a combined 2.86 that points to a match with scoring chances for both sides. Worth repeating: this is an in-house estimate, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With both teams needing points in this league phase, the AFAS Stadion should be the setting for an open match, where any small detail (a mistake, a set piece, a flash of individual quality) could tip the balance.