Chicago Fire rally past Atlanta United 3-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

It took Tomas Jacob just three minutes to have Mercedes-Benz Stadium dreaming of a perfect start. But the dream didn't last long: Chicago Fire FC flipped the scoreline within half an hour of play and walked away with a 2-3 win that leaves them in better shape in the Eastern Conference table of MLS.

Atlanta United came out firing. In the 3rd minute, Miguel Almiron sprung a quick counterattack and squared it for Jacob, who finished with his right foot from the center of the box to open the scoring. It looked like the night might be a simple one for the home side, but Chicago Fire answered patiently and found their equalizer from a corner: in the 29th minute, Anton Saletros struck a left-footed shot from outside the box that slipped in by the right post to make it 1-1.

With the score level at the break, the second half told a completely different story. The Fire came out determined to take all three points and did so inside the first fourteen minutes of the half. First, Anzor Mekvabishvili, just off the bench, finished with his right foot into the middle of the goal in the 50th minute to make it 1-2. Then, in the 59th minute, Philip Zinckernagel, off a free kick played into the box by Saletros, lashed a right-footed shot into the top corner for the 1-3, a stunning goal that all but sealed the match.

Atlanta tried to respond and partially succeeded. In the 66th minute, Breel Embolo rose to head home a cross from Elias Baez to make it 2-3 and inject some late tension into the match. But there was no time or finishing left to complete the comeback: the Fire held on through the closing minutes, including five minutes of stoppage time, and took all three points.

What the numbers say

Chicago Fire's control of the match showed up in several of the game's statistics, though without huge gaps. The Fire had more possession, more shots and more shots on target, while Atlanta United was the more disciplined side.

As for the xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots, the split was close: 1.187 for Atlanta United against 1.372 for Chicago Fire, a gap that doesn't fully explain a three-goals-to-one edge on the scoreboard, but one that does confirm the visitors created enough danger to deserve the win.

The pre-match numbers had pointed in exactly this direction: our projection gave Chicago Fire a 46% chance to win, against 28% for Atlanta United and 26% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.75 for the visitors against 1.33 for the hosts. The final result ended up matching that forecast fairly closely, though the goal tally ran higher than projected for both sides.

What the result means for the standings

With this result, Chicago Fire FC moves to 51 points and holds onto fourth place in the Eastern Conference, while Atlanta United stays on 30 points in 14th place, 21 points behind their opponent on the night. Combined with what played out on the field, those numbers make clear that the match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium ended up reflecting the gap between the two sides in the standings fairly accurately.