Fifth-place Como hosts struggling Sassuolo as heavy favorite

Como sits fifth with 14 points through seven matches and welcomes a Sassuolo side to the Giuseppe Sinigaglia that currently occupies 13th place with 8 points. That's a six-point gap between the two clubs in the standings, and this weekend's Serie A clash looks like a solid test of just how far Cesc Fabregas's team can go this season.

The home side has racked up four wins, two draws and one loss so far in the competition, scoring 12 goals and conceding 7. The picture over the last five matches, though, has been choppier: two losses, a draw and two wins, in that order, leaving the impression of a team that went through a tough stretch but closed it out with back-to-back victories. In this season's Serie A, both home and away, Como averages 1.71 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, with the 16th to 30th minute window standing out as its most productive scoring stretch.

Sassuolo, for its part, has a record of two wins, two draws and three losses in the competition, with 12 goals scored and 14 conceded. Its recent form hasn't helped either: a draw, a win, a loss, another draw and a loss in its last five outings. On the road in this Serie A campaign, across a sample of four matches, Alberto Aquilani's side has conceded an average of 2.503 goals per game and hasn't kept a clean sheet in any of them, while doing most of its scoring between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Sassuolo either: of the three meetings between the two sides, Como has won two and lost one, with a combined score of 6 goals for and just 2 against.

Likely lineups

Fabregas could stick with much of his usual core, with Jean Butez between the posts and Nico Paz, a starter in every recent match, driving the midfield alongside Lucas da Cunha, Luis Milla, Martin Baturina and Maximo Perrone. Up front, Tasos Douvikas looks like the main attacking reference, with 3 goals in the season's trend sample. This lineup is projected from recent matches rather than confirmed, the same goes for Sassuolo's, which would likely feature Arijanet Muric in goal and Domenico Berardi, Armand Laurienté and Sebastiano Esposito as the chief attacking threats.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to Como in this one, though it doesn't rule out surprises:

This is our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a fixed prediction. Expected goals also show a gap: 2.23 for Como versus 0.86 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.09 that lines up with a 79% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals. There's also a 71% chance both teams find the net, so the idea of a tight, low scoring affair doesn't look like the most likely outcome.

With Como needing to keep pace among the league's top five and Sassuolo looking to snap its poor run away from home, the Giuseppe Sinigaglia is set for a match where, on paper, the odds are far from even, but soccer always leaves room for the unexpected.