Dinamo Zagreb Dominated, Led Twice, Still Fell 2-4 to N.E.C.

Maksimir Stadium went silent down the stretch: Dinamo Zagreb was up 2-1 and ended up losing 2-4 to an N.E.C. side that struck three times at just the right moments. The Croatian club controlled possession, created more scoring chances and even had a goal disallowed by VAR while riding momentum, but the Dutch side finished with efficiency and walked away with all three points in the Europa League.

The match opened with Dinamo Zagreb taking the initiative, but it was N.E.C. that struck first: in the 24th minute, Clement Bischoff finished low past the left post off an assist from Noé Lebreton, making it 0-1. The home side responded quickly. In the 32nd minute, Dion Beljo equalized with a point blank header off a cross from Matteo Pérez Vinlöf. Two minutes later came the most contested moment of the night: a goal from Luka Ivanusec was disallowed by VAR, with the review confirming it should not stand. Dinamo didn't let it rattle them, and in the 36th minute Beljo scored his second of the night with a close range finish off a counterattack, making it 2-1.

N.E.C. leveled things again before halftime: in the 44th minute, Bryan Linssen headed home from the center of the box, assisted by Bischoff, making it 2-2 at the break. In the second half, the Dutch side delivered the blow that would end up defining the match: in the 53rd minute, Linssen scored his second goal of the night with a strike from outside the box, again off a counterattack, this time assisted by Darko Nejasmic, making it 2-3. Dinamo Zagreb pushed hard for the equalizer, bringing on Mislav Orsic and Dani Rodríguez, but couldn't find a way past the visiting goalkeeper again. Then in the 79th minute, Tjaronn Chery sealed it with a left footed strike into the top left corner from the center of the box, making the final score 2-4.

What the numbers say

Dinamo Zagreb controlled possession and had more shots on target, but it wasn't enough. Our estimate of xG generated in the match, calculated after the fact based on shot location, gives the home side 3.59 against 1.17 for the visitors, a gap that reflects Croatian territorial dominance while also explaining why the result might feel like an upset: N.E.C. was far more lethal with the little it had.

The pre-match outlook had painted a very different picture. Our model gave Dinamo Zagreb a 72% chance of winning, just 11% to N.E.C. and 17% to a draw, with expected goals of 2.8 for the home side against 1.1 for the visitors. What actually happened was the exact opposite of the projection: the team expected to win comfortably ended up conceding four goals and handing over all three points.

In the standings, both clubs arrived with similar records so far in the competition: Dinamo Zagreb had one win, one draw and one loss, same as N.E.C., with just a one point difference in goal difference between the two sides before this match. Now, with this loss, the Croatian side sees its goal difference take an even bigger hit, while N.E.C. picks up a win that gives it some breathing room in the Europa League table.

What this match leaves behind is the story of a team that controlled the game but failed to close down space at the decisive moments. Dinamo Zagreb had the ball, the chances and even the lead twice, but N.E.C. made the most of its transitions with a ruthlessness that ended up making the difference between winning and losing.