Dinamo Zagreb beats Anderlecht on 95th-minute penalty

Maksimir Stadium had to wait until the 95th minute to celebrate. A VAR-reviewed penalty in stoppage time gave Dinamo Zagreb the final 1-0 over Anderlecht, in a Europa League league-phase match that stayed scoreless for nearly the entire night.

For most of the match, a draw looked like the likely outcome. Neither side could turn its chances into goals despite flashes of danger: Dinamo Zagreb threatened early with shots from Luka Ivanusec and Arber Hoxha that drifted wide, while Anderlecht answered with attempts from Thelo Aasgaard and Mihajlo Cvetkovic, the latter crashing off the crossbar in the 20th minute. There was also back-and-forth from shots by Tristan Degreef and Oleg Reabciuk, both of which were met by the home goalkeeper.

The second half cooled off in terms of clear chances, though Dani Rodriguez and Marten Winkler each had attempts that didn't trouble either goalkeeper. The match seemed destined to end scoreless until, deep into stoppage time, the play that changed everything arrived: in the 92nd minute, a handball by Oleg Reabciuk inside the box stopped play for a VAR review. Once the penalty was confirmed, Dion Beljo made no mistake from the spot, placing his left-footed shot down the middle for the 1-0 that sealed the result.

What the numbers say

Anderlecht controlled possession and created more clean-cut chances, but Dinamo Zagreb was more efficient with its shooting and dominated set pieces.

In our own expected goals estimate, calculated from the match's shots, Dinamo Zagreb finished with 2.049 xG compared to 1.101 for Anderlecht, a gap that backs up the home win even though the goal didn't arrive until the very end.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Dinamo Zagreb a 60% chance of winning, against a 22% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an Anderlecht win, with expected goals of 2.18 for the home side and 1.13 for Anderlecht. The final result, a tight 1-0 decided in stoppage time, ended up matching the favoritism those numbers pointed to, though the path there was far narrower than the figures suggested.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Dinamo Zagreb moves to 4 points in the competition, the product of a win and a draw in two matches played, sitting in 14th place in the league phase. Anderlecht, meanwhile, remains without points after two losses, in 28th place. The gap between the two sides is 4 points in the table.

For Dinamo Zagreb, it was a night of patience rewarded in the final breath; for Anderlecht, another match where it couldn't find a way to take points, despite controlling more possession and generating more shots on target. The late penalty ended up being the difference between a point that got away and another that Dinamo Zagreb managed to hold onto until the final whistle.