Famalicao thrashes Nacional 4-0 in Madeira as Koutsias and Sorriso both score twice

Six minutes. That's all Famalicao needed to take control of the match at Estadio da Madeira. Georgios Koutsias slotted home with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 1-0, and that opened the door to a rout that finished 4-0 for the visitors, with a brace apiece from Koutsias and Sorriso. On top of that, CD Nacional finished the match with a man sent off.

What stands out is that the scoreline didn't match what had been projected before kickoff. In our preview we gave Nacional a 27% chance of winning, 33% for a draw and 40% for a Famalicao victory, with expected goals of 0.93 for the home side and 1.17 for the visitors. The total goals figure we had projected was 2.1, and the match ended with four goals, all for the same team.

A first half that settled things

The script was written before halftime. In the 6th minute, Koutsias put Famalicao ahead off an assist from Sorriso. Just six minutes later, in the 12th minute, came the second: Sorriso, with his left foot, made it 0-2 off a corner kick, on a play that needed a VAR review before it was confirmed. Nacional had their answers, a shot off the crossbar from Miguel Baeza and a save under the bar by Allen Obando in the opening ten minutes, but couldn't find the net. Before the break, in the 39th minute, Koutsias completed his brace with a low shot next to the post, assisted by Mathias de Amorim, making it 0-3 at halftime.

In the second half, Nacional tried to respond and created chances through Chiheb Laabidi, Matheus Dias and Wesley Andrade, but Famalicao managed the lead and struck again on the counterattack: in the 66th minute, Sorriso finished into the top left corner off a pass from Amorim to make it a final 0-4. The home side finished with ten men after Matheus Dias was sent off for a second yellow card for dangerous play in the 76th minute.

The numbers behind the match

The curious thing is that the overall stats don't reflect such a lopsided result. Nacional had more possession and more total shots and corners, but Famalicao was far more clinical in front of goal.

The xG calculated after the fact using the match's shot data tells a different story: 1.614 for Nacional and 1.608 for Famalicao, essentially even. This is our own estimate based on shot location, not a prediction, and it helps put into perspective that the home side generated enough danger that a 4-0 scoreline wasn't a given had their finishing been sharper. The finishing touch, though, belonged to Famalicao: they converted four goals from seven shots on target.

What the result means in the standings

In the Liga Portugal table, Famalicao arrived with 7 points from 7 matches played, and CD Nacional with 4 points also from 7 matches, carrying a goal difference of -8 before this result. The gap between the two sides in the table was just 3 points before the match, something this weekend's rout is set to widen. Nacional had already been going through a rough patch in the league, and this 0-4 home defeat, combined with the late red card, leaves a tough image for a team that needs to pick up points steadily to pull away from the bottom of the table.

For Famalicao, this show of authority in Madeira, with braces from Koutsias and Sorriso, is the exact opposite of what the preview had anticipated in terms of margin: a tight match was expected, and it turned into a clear offensive statement from the visiting side.