Freiburg storms back from behind to stun Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena

Augsburg got off to a fast start, controlled long spells of the match and still walked away from the WWK Arena empty handed. Freiburg turned the game around late to win 1-2, leaving a bittersweet taste for the home fans, who watched two blows in the space of 20 minutes strip away a result they had held firmly in hand for most of the night.

Both sides came out with clear intentions, but it was Augsburg who struck first. In the 17th minute, Michael Gregoritsch met an Arijon Ibrahimovic cross with a left footed strike from the center of the box into the top corner to make it 1-0. He had already given a warning sign earlier with an attempt from outside the area, and Ibrahimovic himself had a clear chance in first half stoppage time that the opposing goalkeeper shut down. The teams went into the break with that scoreline intact.

In the second half, Augsburg remained the sharper side: Yannik Keitel clipped the crossbar with a header, and there was a flurry of shots from Gregoritsch, Ibrahimovic and Anton Kade between the 56th and 58th minutes that failed to find the net. That wasted pressure eventually caught up with the hosts. In the 64th minute, Freiburg equalized through Igor Matanovic, who had come on at halftime, with a right footed finish along the ground off an assist from Keisuke Goto, also a fresh substitute. The equalizer changed the entire complexion of the match.

The decisive blow came in the 84th minute: a cross from Vincenzo Grifo, another substitute who made an instant impact, found Cyriaque Irie, who had barely stepped onto the field, for a close range header that sealed the final 1-2. Augsburg still searched for an answer with a shot from Uchenna Ogundu in the 89th minute, but there was no time or precision left to find an equalizer.

What the numbers say

Augsburg were the better team across the overall run of play: more possession, more shots and more shots on target, plus two big chances to Freiburg's one. Still, the visitors' efficiency in the moments that mattered most outweighed the home side's volume.

By our own expected goals estimate, built from the shots taken in the match, Freiburg finished ahead despite firing fewer attempts: 1.608 against Augsburg's 1.285. The gap comes down to the quality of the chances that decided the scoreline, both visiting goals were born from well placed crosses finished from very close range.

The result also diverges from what we projected before kickoff. Our preview gave Freiburg a 39% chance of winning, Augsburg 34% and a draw 27%, with expected goals of 1.49 for the home side and 1.59 for the visitors. The outcome ended up matching the visitors' edge as favorites, even if the path there, falling behind and storming back inside 20 minutes, was not the most likely script on paper.

What the result means in the standings

Coming into this match in the Bundesliga season so far, Freiburg had five wins, one draw and two losses, while Augsburg had two wins, three draws and three losses. Before this matchday, Freiburg already sat in third place and Augsburg in ninth, separated by 7 points. The win at the WWK Arena cements the visitors' spot near the top of the table, while Augsburg are left to reckon with having let slip a match they had, for the most part, under control.