Hapoel Be'er Sheva rallies past Sabah 2-1 in a match the stats say they controlled

Hapoel Be'er Sheva came from behind to beat Sabah 2-1 at Arena Giulesti, in a match that started poorly for the Israeli side but that they ended up controlling from start to finish thanks to their attacking persistence. The Azerbaijani club struck first, but couldn't withstand the pressure from a rival that piled on the shots and finally found reward in the second half.

A rough start and the response before halftime

Sabah took the lead early, in just the 5th minute, when Veljko Simic headed home a cross from Tymoteusz Puchacz to make it 0-1. The goal rattled Hapoel Be'er Sheva but didn't break them: the home side answered with persistent pressure, creating chances through Igor Zlatanovic and Miguel Vitor, though without finding the net. The equalizer came right at the end of the half, in the 42nd minute, when Javon East finished with his left foot from the middle of the box to make it 1-1, the score at the break.

The goal that decided the match

In the second half, Sabah had their best stretch in the opening 15 minutes of the period, with a shot from Orphe Mbina that went just wide and another that drew a strong save from the home goalkeeper after a header from the same player. But Hapoel Be'er Sheva kept dictating the pace with the ball, and after a corner kick, they found their reward: in the 78th minute, Igor Zlatanovic headed home a close-range cross from Eliel Peretz to make it a final 2-1. Sabah tried to respond in the closing minutes, with shots from Joy-Lance Mickels and Steve Solvet that missed the target, but they couldn't find a way back.

Dominance reflected in the numbers

The stats confirm the control Hapoel Be'er Sheva exerted for much of the match, with greater possession and a shot volume far higher than their opponent's.

According to an in-house estimate calculated after the match based on shot locations, Hapoel Be'er Sheva generated an xG of 2.488 compared to Sabah's 1.124, a gap that backs up the home side's control over the flow of play, regardless of the tight final score.

What the preview said versus what happened on the field

Before the match, the published projection gave Hapoel Be'er Sheva a 39 percent chance of winning, a 31 percent chance of a draw and a 30 percent chance of a Sabah win, with expected goals of 1.25 for the home side and 1.08 for the visitors. The final result ended up matching the forecast that gave the Israeli side a slight edge, though the path there wasn't straightforward: Sabah's early goal cast doubt on that script before the home side's persistence, reflected in their 18 shot attempts, tipped the balance.

The takeaway

Hapoel Be'er Sheva walks away with a hard-earned win, built on possession and persistence in front of the opposing goal, with Javon East and Igor Zlatanovic as the protagonists behind the goals that turned the result around. For Sabah, there's the sense of having been competitive in stretches of the match, especially after the break, but without the cutting edge needed to hold onto the lead they had built early on.