N.E.C. and Levski Sofia Split the Points 1-1 in a Europa League Clash of the Needy

VAR wiped out a goal from Everton Bala in the 16th minute, but Levski Sofia didn't let it get in their heads for long: they found the net shortly after and headed into the break in front. In the end, the 1-1 at the Goffertstadion left both teams with the same bittersweet feeling they carried into the match, in the Europa League league phase.

The game had everything except a winner. N.E.C. started the brighter of the two sides, with Tjaronn Chery testing the Levski Sofia defense again and again: a blocked shot in the 2nd minute, another save at the 4, a close-range header at the 12th. The home side's control of the game was obvious, but the goal wouldn't come. Then came the first jolt: in the 16th minute, Everton Bala put the ball in the net for Levski Sofia, only for a VAR review to chalk it off and keep the score level.

Far from fading, Levski Sofia grew into the match as the minutes ticked by. Reinaldo had several chances between the 27th and 29th minutes, and though he missed the first ones, he made no mistake with the last of the first half: in the 34th minute, assisted by Svetoslav Vutsov, he struck a right-footed shot from the center of the box to make it 0-1. That lead held until halftime.

N.E.C.'s Response

The second half picked up with N.E.C. pushing forward again. Kevin Kers clipped the crossbar in the 48th minute, Dusan Tadic tried his luck on several occasions, and the pressure eventually paid off: in the 63rd minute, Tjaronn Chery connected with a left-footed strike from the center of the box, low and inside the post, to make it a final 1-1.

From there the game opened up, with substitutions on both sides and chances at either end, but N.E.C. couldn't find the second goal despite pressing until the very end (Bryan Linssen had the last chance in stoppage time), and Levski Sofia couldn't catch them out on the break either. The scoreboard didn't move again.

What the Numbers Say

The home side's dominance showed up in the stats, especially in shots and corners, though Levski Sofia was more clinical with its clear chances.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, N.E.C. generated 2.09 expected goals against 1.57 for Levski Sofia, a gap that confirms the home side's greater attacking volume, even though the final score ended up splitting the points.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Levski Sofia a 44% chance of winning, against 27% for N.E.C. and 29% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.13 for the home side and 1.51 for the visitors. The final result, draw included, landed fairly close to that in-between scenario we laid out, though N.E.C. ended up generating more than expected.

In the standings, neither side has any room to spare: N.E.C. has just 1 point from 2 games played, with a goal difference of -5, while Levski Sofia also has 1 point from 2 games, with a -1 difference. This draw leaves them in almost the same spot they were in before kickoff: in need of a win in the coming matchdays to avoid falling off the pace of the rest of the group.

In the end, N.E.C. is left with the feeling of having deserved more for all its persistence, but Levski Sofia walks away with a point that, on its own particular table, could end up weighing as much as a win at mid-season.