N.E.C. and Levski Sofia, both pointless in the Europa League, meet in Nijmegen looking to escape the bottom of the table

A 0-5 scoreline leaves its mark, and N.E.C. is still carrying the weight of it. The Nijmegen side hosts this match at the Goffertstadion with the worst goal difference of the entire league phase, after being routed in its opening game in the Europa League. Across the pitch will be Levski Sofia, which lost its own debut by the narrowest of margins and arrives with fewer scars, though with the same zero in the points column.

The contrast in tournament numbers is stark: N.E.C. played one match, lost it, and shipped five goals without scoring any. Levski Sofia also played one match and also lost it, but its defeat came by a single goal, conceding one and scoring none. Those are the figures that explain why both sides sit near the bottom of the overall standings, though with just one match played apiece, it's worth being cautious about drawing firm conclusions from that position.

Recent form, however, paints two very different pictures. N.E.C. arrives without a win in its last five matches, with three draws and two losses in that short sample. Levski Sofia, by contrast, has racked up three wins, one draw and one loss in its last five outings, a run that marks it as the side with more momentum of the two, despite both sharing zero points in this competition.

Two lineups still up in the air

Neither starting eleven is set in stone, and the reliability of both projections is low based on available data. For N.E.C., names like Tobias Storm (a starter in the last six matches) and Dusan Tadic look like fixtures in Dick Schreuder's likely lineup, alongside Tjaronn Chery and Bryan Linssen up front. At Levski Sofia, under Julio Velazquez, recent rotation has been heavier: no outfield player has started more than two of the last five matches, leaving a fairly open projected lineup, with Reinaldo and Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez as the attacking references.

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't appear in the available records, so there's no direct history weighing on this meeting at the Goffertstadion.

What the model says

Our own projection, based on this season's trends, points to a tight split with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The draw and the home win sit very close to each other, confirming there's no overwhelming favorite, though Levski Sofia's 44% stands out as the single most likely outcome of the three. Expected goals, another in-house estimate, point to a match with chances for both sides: 1.13 for N.E.C. and 1.51 for Levski Sofia, a combined 2.63 that suggests neither team will set out to play it safe. It's worth remembering these are internal projections, not bookmaker odds.

With both teams in need of their first point in the Europa League's league phase, the match at the Goffertstadion has all the makings of a direct duel to climb off the bottom of the table.