Notts County outlast Altrincham on penalties after thrilling 2-2 draw in FA Cup

There was a bit of everything at the J. Davidson Stadium: four goals, a full extra time period and an endless penalty shootout that ended with Notts County taking the spoils 3-2, after the scoreboard through 120 minutes stayed frozen at 2-2. The deadlock in regulation, and then in extra time, settled nothing: it all came down to the spot in an FA Cup tie that Altrincham had closer within reach than the final result suggests.

The match kicked off with Notts County striking first. In the 27th minute, following a corner kick, Callum Roberts whipped in a cross that Jacob Bedeau met with a point blank header to make it 0-1. Altrincham wasted no time responding: eleven minutes later, on a quick break, Matthew Kosylo sparked a counterattack and Lucas Weaver finished low with his right foot, just inside the post, for the 1-1 scoreline at halftime.

In the second half, Altrincham turned the game around. In the 58th minute, Lewis Banks tucked away a close range shot with his right foot to make it 2-1, a goal that looked set to punch Altrincham's ticket to the next round of the competition. But Notts County refused to fold, and in the 83rd minute Callum Roberts struck again, this time on his own: he received the ball from Lee Ndlovu and drilled a left footed shot from outside the box that found the right side of the net for the final 2-2 in regulation time.

A marathon finish from the penalty spot

With the score still level after extra time, the match went to penalties. From there, the script turned almost chaotic: Aidan Barlow, Samuel Taylor and Edward Jones all missed for Altrincham, while James Gibbons and Matt Palmer missed for Notts County, in a shootout filled with misses that ran longer than usual. Finally, Rosaire Longelo converted the kick that gave Notts County the 3-2 win in the shootout. It is worth being clear here: the shootout decided who took the win on the night, but there is no elimination or advancement at stake in this fixture, so Notts County simply claimed the penalty duel after the draw.

What the numbers say

Notts County were the side with the greater volume of play: they dominated possession and fired off considerably more shots than their opponents, though the gap narrowed when it came to shots on target.

Our estimate of xG generated over the course of the match also favors Notts County, with 2.911 against Altrincham's 1.924, a reflection of those 26 shots that kept testing the home side's resistance time and again.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Notts County a 37% chance of winning, with 33% for Altrincham and 30% for a draw, and an expected total goals count of 2.53. The final result ended up matching that tight split fairly well: an even match, tied through regulation, that ultimately tilted toward the side that came in as the slight favorite, though it had to happen the longest way possible.

What this tie leaves behind is a back and forth match, with Altrincham coming back only to fall short again, and a Notts County side that kept pushing until finding its reward in the shootout, after a night that stretched on far longer than expected at the J. Davidson Stadium.