Real Madrid hosts Real Sociedad at the Bernabeu as clear favorites after winning start

The Bernabeu welcomes Real Sociedad this weekend at the start of LaLiga, with both sides still searching for their footing after just one round played, though the early signs already point in very different directions. Real Madrid arrives unbeaten and with a goal to spare on the scoreboard, while Real Sociedad opens the season without having found the back of the net at all.

How they arrive

Real Madrid won its only match of the campaign 2-1, with goals from Carlos Espi and Jude Bellingham, and is averaging 2 goals scored per game against 1 conceded. Over its last five matches the club has racked up four wins and a draw, with no losses in that stretch. Los Blancos currently sit sixth with 3 points, though with only one game played, that ranking says more about how tight the early standings are than about any real pecking order.

Real Sociedad, down in 19th, lost its opener 1-0 and has yet to score this season. Its form over the last five matches offers little reason for optimism either: two draws and three losses, with no wins at all. The goal numbers back up that rough stretch, averaging 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per game.

Head to head

Recent history between these two sides overwhelmingly favors Real Madrid. Of the 8 meetings on record, the Whites have won 7 with just 1 draw, and Real Sociedad hasn't taken a single one. The goal difference tells the same story: 18 for Real Madrid against 7 for Real Sociedad.

Probable lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated lineup of low reliability, Real Madrid could start Thibaut Courtois in goal, behind a back line of Alvaro Carreras, Denzel Dumfries and Dean Huijsen, with a midfield featuring Federico Valverde, Arda Guler, Bernardo Silva, Vinicius Junior and Brahim Diaz supporting Kylian Mbappe up top.

On the visitors' side, Real Sociedad could field Alex Remiro in goal, a back line of Sergio Gomez, Jon Martin, Jon Aramburu and Igor Zubeldia, a midfield of Carlos Soler, Takefusa Kubo, Yangel Herrera, Luka Sucic and Ander Barrenetxea, with Orri Oskarsson leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives Real Madrid a clear edge heading into this matchup.

The figures line up well with the contrasting form of both teams: a 68% probability for Real Madrid against just 13% for Real Sociedad, with 19% reserved for a draw. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With recent history and this season's numbers pointing in the same direction, the Bernabeu heads into this clash with a clear favorite on paper. The question is whether Real Sociedad can break, even briefly, the scoring drought it has carried since the start of the season.