Stuttgart stuns Leverkusen 4-2 despite being dominated for nearly the entire match

Thirteen minutes. That's all it took for Stuttgart to go up at the BayArena and make clear this afternoon wasn't going to follow the script. The final score read 4-2 in favor of Sebastian Hoeneß's side, who walked away with all three Bundesliga points even though Bayer 04 Leverkusen held the ball for nearly the whole match.

Things started poorly for Carles Martínez's team. In the 13th minute, Ermedin Demirovic finished with his left foot from the center of the box, low and inside the post, for the 0-1. Eight minutes later, in the 21st, Jamie Leweling tapped in from close range after a corner kick to make it 0-2. Leverkusen responded with composure: in the 27th minute, Patrik Schick headed home a cross from Aleix García, also off a corner, to make it 1-2 at the break.

The home side's hopes of a comeback didn't last long in the second half. In the 50th minute, Bilal El Khannouss fired a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Chris Führich, that snuck in on the right side of the goal: 1-3. Then in the 64th minute, on a fast break, Demirovic struck again, this time with his right foot from point-blank range, burying it in the top corner off a pass from Deniz Undav; the goal was confirmed after a VAR review. The 1-4 looked to have sealed the match. Leverkusen still had one moment of pride left: Ibrahim Maza headed home a cross from Miguel Gutiérrez to make it a final 2-4 in the 78th minute.

A dominant performance with nothing to show for it

The stats tell an odd story: Leverkusen was far superior in ball control and attacking volume, but not where it mattered most. The home side had 63.2% possession, took 24 shots to Stuttgart's 15 and forced 12 corners against just 3 for their opponents. Still, Stuttgart was the more clinical side in the final third.

That gap in efficiency also shows up in the expected goals figures calculated after the fact from the match's shots: Stuttgart produced 3.415 expected goals compared to Leverkusen's 2.269, a number that backs up what ended up happening on the scoreboard even though the ball spent most of the match at the home side's feet.

What stands out is that the pre-match numbers pointed the other way. Our projection gave Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 49% chance of winning, against 26% for Stuttgart and 25% for a draw, with a projected total of 3.26 goals (1.91 for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors). Reality ended up being the exact opposite of the favorite: not only did Stuttgart win, they scored four goals, well above what was projected for their attack.

What the result means

In the standings, the loss leaves Bayer 04 Leverkusen in sixth place with 13 points from 8 matches played, while Stuttgart sits in tenth with 9 points, also from 8 outings. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 4 points, a distance this result doesn't erase but does make uncomfortable, especially for a Leverkusen side that controlled the ball but couldn't hold up defensively against the visitors' quick transitions.

For Stuttgart, the match stands as proof that even without controlling the run of play, clinical finishing can be enough to secure a clear win on the road. For Leverkusen, the task ahead is obvious: turn its edge in possession and chances into something more than a loss on the scoreboard.