Südtirol knocks out Catanzaro on penalties after twice fighting back in Coppa Italia

Südtirol advanced in the Coppa Italia from the penalty spot after a 2-2 draw with Catanzaro at the Nicola Ceravolo through 90 minutes and extra time. The shootout finished 3-3, but the South Tyrol side prevailed on penalties and moved on to the next round, while Catanzaro, who had twice taken the lead, went out despite arguably deserving better over long stretches of the match.

A back and forth game that stayed level through regulation

Südtirol struck first through a moment of brilliance from Niklas Pyyhtiä, who curled a direct free kick with his left foot into the top right corner in the 16th minute to make it 0-1. Catanzaro, who had already been probing with Iemmello and Petriccione early on, drew level ten minutes later: Simone Pafundi met a Marco D'Alessandro cross and finished with his left foot from the center of the box to make it 1-1, the score at halftime.

Catanzaro came out sharper in the second half and were rewarded quickly: in the 52nd minute, Pietro Iemmello slotted home from inside the box with his left foot to make it 2-1 and put the home side back in front. Südtirol answered with a shot from Simone Tronchin that cracked off the crossbar in the 61st minute, a warning sign that the tie was still very much alive. The push from the Bolzano side paid off late on: in the 84th minute, Kenny Mixtur, who had come on as a substitute, struck a right footed shot from the center of the box into the top corner off a Tronchin assist, making it 2-2, the final score that sent the match to penalties.

The shootout that decided the tie

In the shootout, Catanzaro missed through Riccardo Stivanello... actually, the miss in that series belonged to Ruggero Frosinini, while Südtirol also wasted a spot kick through Riccardo Stivanello early in the shootout. With successful conversions from Jacopo Petriccione, Nicoló Buso and Gabriel Arditi for the home side, and from Vasco Lopes, Daniele Casiraghi and Salvatore Molina for the visitors, the shootout went all the way to the fifth round tied at 3-3. In the end, Südtirol came out on top on penalties and advanced in the Coppa Italia, eliminating Catanzaro despite the home side having won the match on the scoreboard through 90 minutes.

What the numbers show

Catanzaro were the better side in terms of possession and attacking volume, though they were unable to convert that edge into a direct path through to the next round.

According to an in house estimate calculated after the match based on its shots, Catanzaro generated 1.161 expected goals compared to Südtirol's 0.736, a gap that backs up the home side's control of the game, though the result ended up being settled on different ground entirely: the penalty spot.

A forecast the tie ended up overturning

Before kickoff, our preview gave Catanzaro a 60% chance of winning, with 22% for a draw and just 18% for Südtirol, with expected goals of 2.17 for the home side and 1.11 for the visitors. The way the match played out was not far off that read: Catanzaro went ahead 2-1 at one point and created more chances, but Mixtur's stoppage time goal and the penalty shootout that followed flipped the script. What looked like it was heading toward a comfortable home win turned into a painful elimination, exactly the kind of outcome no pre-match projection can ever fully see coming.

The takeaways

Südtirol showed real character in clawing back from two separate deficits and displayed the mental strength that proved decisive in the shootout, the coin flip that ultimately sent them through to the next round of the Coppa Italia. Catanzaro, meanwhile, are left to reflect on having done enough to deserve advancing, and on the frustration of an elimination they could not avoid despite leading the match twice.