Villarreal storms back to sink Malaga 1-3 at La Rosaleda

Malaga's joy lasted just eleven minutes courtesy of a counterattack goal, but Villarreal ended up steamrolling their hosts at La Rosaleda: 1-3, after an opening that promised something entirely different. Carlos Dotor put the home side ahead, and Inigo Perez's team answered with goals from Alberto Moleiro and a Pape Gueye double, the second from the penalty spot, to walk away with all three points in LaLiga.

Dotor's goal came from a quick break: he fired home with his right foot from the middle of the box after Juan Cruz's assist, rattling a Villarreal side that had already given a couple of warning signs from set pieces before that. The visitors' response took a while to arrive, but once it did, there was no stopping it. In the 39th minute, Alberto Moleiro leveled with a right-footed finish after a cross from Ilias Akhomach, and just after the restart, in the 46th minute, Pape Gueye made it 1-2 with a left-footed finish off an assist from Ayoze Pérez. The match, which had opened with hope for the home fans, was effectively decided in barely half an hour of real playing time.

There was more late drama down the stretch. In the 81st minute, the referee disallowed a goal from Carlos Romero after a VAR review, but on the same play a penalty was awarded for a foul by Alfonso Herrero on Carlos Maciá inside the box. Pape Gueye made no mistake from twelve yards in the 85th minute, putting the finishing touch on the 1-3 scoreline and completing his brace on the afternoon.

Dominance backed up by the numbers

The stats make it clear the result was no fluke. Villarreal controlled the ball for most of the match and created far more chances in the opposing box.

Our own expected-goals estimate for the match tells the same story: Villarreal racked up 4.036 xG against just 0.439 for Malaga, a gap that matches what happened on the field, with the visitors putting seven shots on target compared to just one for the hosts.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Villarreal a 51% chance of winning, against 23% for Malaga and 26% for a draw, with a combined expected-goals total of 3.03 (1.20 for the home side and 1.83 for the visitors). The outcome went in the direction the favorites suggested, though the final scoreline ended up more lopsided than those numbers anticipated.

What the result means in the standings

The result doesn't change the picture much for either side. Malaga sit on 3 points from 6 games, still without a win, while Villarreal have 5 points also from 6 games, with just 2 points separating the two clubs in the table. Neither team finds itself in a comfortable spot, and this stumble for Malaga, combined with Villarreal's response in barely half an hour, makes clear the match was decided in that stretch between the end of the first half and the start of the second, when Villarreal flipped the scoreline with two goals in seven minutes.