Unbeaten Spain heads to Wembley to face England in the Nations League

Wembley is gearing up for a heavyweight clash: England hosts Spain in the UEFA Nations League, and what the numbers show on paper doesn't lie. Two national teams riding hot streaks, with plenty of star power to fill out a final, and a head-to-head record that has lately smiled more on the Spaniards than on the hosts.

Thomas Tuchel's side arrives having won four of its last five matches, with the only blemish being a loss somewhere in that stretch. Spain, meanwhile, hasn't put a foot wrong: five wins in its last five outings, a perfect run that backs up the confidence with which Luis de la Fuente presents his squad in London.

Worth noting, though it shouldn't be mixed in with the current tournament: at the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away, England averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, with Jude Bellingham as its top scorer (7 goals) ahead of Harry Kane (6) and Bukayo Saka (3). Spain, over that same sample of seven World Cup matches, kept a spotless record defensively: 100% of matches without conceding a goal, averaging 1.75 goals scored per game, with Mikel Oyarzabal as its top offensive threat with 5 goals. Those numbers come from a different tournament and a different season, but they paint the picture of two squads arriving in fine form.

What the history books say

England and Spain have plenty of history: six matches played, with 2 English wins, 1 draw and 3 Spanish wins. In terms of goals, Spain also holds the edge: 10 goals scored by the Spaniards compared to 8 for the English. It's not a sample that decides anything today, but it does make clear that meetings between these two are rarely a formality.

The probable lineups

For England, the projected lineup (medium reliability, based on recent matches) shows Jordan Pickford in goal, a back line with Marc Guéhi, Ezri Konsa, Nico O'Reilly and Djed Spence, a midfield of Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Elliot Anderson, with Marcus Rashford pushed further forward and Harry Kane leading the line.

Spain, with a lineup projection carrying higher reliability, would run it back almost by heart: Unai Simón in goal, a back four of Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsí and Pedro Porro, and a midfield packed with talent: Álex Baena, Rodri, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Fabián Ruiz, with Mikel Oyarzabal as the lone striker.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives Spain the role of favorite, though without an overwhelming margin:

The 50% in favor of Spain is far from a done deal, and the 30% for a draw makes clear the match is nowhere near decided beforehand. This is our own estimate, not a betting line: expected goals sit at 0.84 for England and 1.45 for Spain, a combined 2.29 that points to a match with scoring chances for both sides. In fact, the trends show a 73% probability that both teams score and a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 total goals.

With those numbers on the table, Wembley is shaping up for a game that looks even on paper, with Spain arriving on the sturdier run of form and a defense that didn't allow a single goal in another competition, and England looking to erase its slight historical disadvantage in front of its own fans.